The first post-assassination poll is in, in the form of a swing state survey conducted by the Emerson College polling group. The results of this poll should give the Trump campaign a head start on this final day of the Republican National Convention. with a broad grin. The Biden campaign, on the other hand…
A novel poll conducted July 15 and 16 by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Democrats for Next Generation shows former President Trump leading Biden in seven swing states and in one national poll.
In the July 15-16 national poll, 46 percent of registered voters support Trump and 42 percent support Biden; 12 percent are undecided. Biden’s support has dropped two percentage points since the beginning of the month, when 46 percent supported Trump and 44 percent supported Biden.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Recent polls show that Biden has lost more support since the assassination than Trump has gained. This raises the question of whether Biden’s decline is still being influenced by the debate or whether Trump has reached his support limit.”
Those are questions indeed, but it’s the numbers in the swing states – which the polls include third-party candidates – that should be causing Democrats to panic. Those swing state polls show Trump pulling away.
If third-party candidates are brought onto the ballot, Trump can either maintain or boost his lead in the national poll and in six of seven swing states.
- Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
- Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
- Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
- Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
- Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
- National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4%
There’s always the possibility that some of this is due to expressions of sympathy after the assassination of Donald Trump, but it’s equally likely that the stark contrast that has emerged over the last week – Trump leaping to his feet, bloodied but unfazed, fist raised, roaring to the crowd to show them he was OK. Compare that to pale, confused, dazed venerable Joe Biden, who, with a COVID diagnosis, rushed back to his Delaware home once again to hide out for a few more days – or weeks. People tend to support robust leaders; after last week, there’s no denying Trump’s strength or Biden’s weakness.
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Their results are engaging with regard to the question of whether each main candidate withdraw from the race.
When asked whether President Biden should drop out of the race, 52% of respondents nationwide say he should and 48% say he should not. When asked whether former President Trump should drop out of the race, 56% say he should not and 44% say he should.
The obvious answer is: why on earth would former President Trump drop out of the race? Everything seems to be going in his favor. There are all signs that he will reach his second term without a term limit, and presumably, having learned some things from his first, he will almost certainly make this a historic one. The Democrats will of course throw everything they can into their hands, including the kitchen sink, but even if Joe Biden drops out, it probably won’t make much of a difference.
Unless another unforeseeable catastrophe occurs, a Trump victory seems increasingly likely. It will almost certainly be “Trump 2, Electric Bugaloo.” Whether Joe Biden stays in the race or not is unlikely to break Trump’s advance at this point.
