The Democrats made a trade with Joe Biden, even though they knew they would lose with him after his cognitive decline could no longer be hidden following the disastrous debate.
Democrats are trying to drum up support for Kamala Harris, but will they be in a better position with Harris?
People pointed to a Reuters poll that showed Harris ahead by two percentage points. But even there, Democrats were polled too heavily:
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
If you then look at the latest national polls from Real Clear Politics, Trump is still ahead by 1.7 percent on average:
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
As CNN data analyst Harry Enten explained, this is a gigantic difference from 2020 and, if confirmed, means problems in the Electoral College. Biden was ahead by four percentage points in the national vote in 2020 and barely made it to the Electoral College in the official count. Now, Trump is ahead by 1.7 points, a difference of more than five percentage points, according to the RCP poll.
READ MORE: CNN’s Harry Enten drops the reality hammer on Kamala Harris’ dreams
So what does this mean for the electoral college and mathematics?
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
With the featherlight pink “tends” of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has 251 votes and Harris has 226. The featherlight brown are the undecided/contested states – Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If you look at the numbers, assuming the map is correct, the Republicans only need 19 and the Democrats 44.
The Democrats still have fewer options than the Republicans to reach 270. The Democrats have three possible winning combinations. They absolutely have to win Pennsylvania. The Republicans have five, and all they have to do is win Pennsylvania if they maintain their “tendencies” in Georgia and North Carolina. That’s why Pennsylvania is so critical.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
How is Trump doing in the swing states now? Conclusion? According to the latest report, things are not looking good for Harris at the moment. Trump is ahead or on par, except in one state in a new survey by Redfield and Wilton in nine states:
While Harris is ahead of Trump in Minnesota with 44% to 41% (Robert Kennedy Jr. is at 6%) and the two are tied in Wisconsin with 44% each (Kennedy is at 5%), the remaining numbers speak in favor of the former president.
🇩🇪 2024 EG: @RedfieldWilton
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
—
NEVADA… pic.twitter.com/bRKvcPcsny— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 26, 2024
In Arizona, Trump is ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, Kennedy 4 percent. In Florida (which I don’t think is even a swing state this year, although historically it has been one) they are tied. Trump is ahead 47 percent to 39 percent, Harris 5 percent. In Georgia, Trump is ahead by five percentage points, 4 percent to 42 percent, Kennedy 3 percent. In Michigan, Trump is ahead 44 percent to 41 percent, Kennedy 7 percent. Nevada is still Trump’s 45 percent to 43 percent, Kennedy 5 percent. In North Carolina, Trump is ahead 46 percent to 43 percent, Kennedy 4 percent. In the critical state of Pennsylvania, Trump is ahead by four percentage points, 46 percent to 42 percent, Kennedy 5 percent.
Survey at Emerson College The poll, conducted on July 22 and 23, shows Trump holding narrow leads in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2).
And just like in the Redfield-Wilton poll, Emerson is tied with the two candidates in Wisconsin.
SWING STATE SURVEY with @the hill
Harris vs Trump
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%https://t.co/KzHiYgQQU4 pic.twitter.com/uTc2QYntcc— Emerson College Polls (@EmersonPolling) July 25, 2024
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
This is what the map would look like if that were true:
BREAKING NEWS: According to Emerson poll, Trump is 44 electoral votes ahead of Harris.
Trump: 286
Harris: 242 pic.twitter.com/CjmOjTUeup— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) July 27, 2024
While Democrats are trying to whip up a wave of support for Harris, it’s more smoke and mirrors than anything else right now. And that’s before she even faces any real attacks/advertising against her for all of her issues; we’re in the “honeymoon period.” She could see another surge after the convention – assuming she’s elected and/or the anti-Democrats don’t throw the convention into total chaos.
The point is that despite all the machinations, the Democrats are still behind Kamala. She will not do well in the future when it comes to the issues that people care about and how she covered up Biden’s cognitive decline while Republicans keep making those points.
