Republican Kari Lake and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) are on track for their respective primary victories on Tuesday. Both parties observe closely to see how recent shakeups at the top of the Democratic presidential nominations could affect the race for Arizona’s Senate seat in November.
Both parties see a chance to make progress in the race. While Republicans were largely despondent the controversial ability of the lake Some believe that Harris – who is under attack from the right across the border – could lend a hand keep the election going by trying to appeal to a wider swath of the electorate.
Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping Gallego could ride the success of Harris’ campaign if she chooses Democratic Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona as her running mate – who appeals to both Democrats and independents.
Stan Barnes, a former Republican congressman from Arizona, put forward the thesis: “What is more powerful: the difficulties that a Trump-oriented enthusiast like Kari Lake has with this centrist voter, or the difficulties that Congressman Gallego [has] Sell support for Kamala Harris and try to explain where the Democrats were on the border?”
Gallego and Lake are preparing for a key election in November as the two vie for the seat held by Senator Krysten Sinema (I-Arizona). Total polls in Arizona Statistics compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show the Arizona congressman leading the former local news anchor 47 percent to 43 percent.
A few weeks ago, Democrats were raising alarm about President Biden’s re-election, fearing he could influence the candidates in crucial races. But with Harris now likely to be at the top of the ballot, some in the party see reasons for more optimism.
Current polls from Emerson College Polling and The Hill suggests Harris could lend a hand Democrats in swing states. Polls showed her trailing Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 percent to 44 percent – but still doing better than Biden, who got 40 percent there in the last poll conducted by Emerson. In other swing states, the novel poll shows Harris beating Biden by 3 to 5 percentage points.
Of course, poll results can still change less than 100 days before the November election.
Lake, meanwhile, faces her own challenges as she appears to be the clear favorite in Tuesday’s primary election, where she will face Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. While she has made some attempts to court moderates, she has in many ways emerged as the same kind of conservative hardliner as she did when she ran for governor in 2022 – much to the chagrin of some in the party.
“Kari is who she is,” said a source familiar with Lake’s campaign.
“Kari doesn’t have to change much. She has to be herself and … run her race,” the source said, referring to the narrow margin by which Lake lost in 2022.
The source noted that the campaign is getting more stimulating despite Lake’s lower campaign spending compared to Gallego, arguing that “her messaging discipline is working” and she “has done a good job on the ground.”
Some Republicans also hope that Harris will lend a hand as the Republican Party’s front-runner in the Grand Canyon State.
“Whether Mark Lamb or Kari Lake wins, the fact that Harris is at the top of the ticket is going to give us a lot of controversy to deal with,” said Dave Smith, Pima County Republican chairman. “Whether people believe she was the czar of the border or not, the border is a huge issue here.”
Harris was appointed in 2021 to lead efforts to address “the root causes of migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras,” and the Republican Party has adopted the term “border czar” to label her, even though that was never her actual role.
Barnes, a former Republican state lawmaker, also said Harris could not be helpful in a state like Arizona because “she’s a liberal from California, and liberals from California don’t work in Arizona.”
Other Republicans, however, believe the election campaign could become more stimulating now that Harris is at the top of the list of candidates.
“The only reason [Lake] “The fact that Trump caught up, in my opinion, was not because of their killer ads or Gallego deficits. It was simply because Trump swaggered in Arizona,” said Republican consultant Jason Rose.
When Biden was at the top of the Democratic ticket, Gallego consistently outperformed the president and was mostly ahead of Lake in the polls. The latest polls from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, released this week, showed Gallego at 46 percent and Lake at 42 percent.
While Democrats distanced themselves from Biden, who suffered from below-average approval ratings, in the contested Senate elections, some of these candidates were less hesitant to side with the vice president.
“As Vice President, @KamalaHarris has traveled across the country visiting states like ours to defend women’s right to make their own decisions about their health care,” Gallego said. wrote on X after Biden dropped out. “I look forward to fighting with her to defend these rights as she works to earn the nomination.”
Gallego has already been attacked on the immigration issue by Lake and the Republican campaign arm in the Senate. The congressman, who has tried to avoid his progressive credentials, has spoken out on some of these issues himself, Broadcasting a commercial with a Democratic sheriff in Santa Cruz County. called Biden’s Executive Order in June that constrained asylum applications were a “step in the right direction” but argued that more needed to be done.
Gallego’s campaign also aimed to remind voters of his military achievements while addressing issues that resonate with the Democratic base, such as abortion.
“Ruben Gallego is a Marine combat veteran who has always put Arizonans first to reduce costs for families, defend abortion rights, and protect Social Security and Medicare for our seniors,” said Hannah Goss, spokeswoman for the Gallego campaign. “Meanwhile, Kari Lake is a power-hungry opportunist who will do anything to gain power – even if that means banning abortion or declaring herself governor after she loses in 2022. She does not represent Arizona’s values, and that is exactly why she will lose again this year.”
The Harris team is also directing the immigration attacks back at Trump, arguing that he himself does not have a particularly good track record on the issue.
“Donald Trump killed the bipartisan border security agreement because Donald Trump was never about solutions, just about addressing a problem,” a Harris campaign spokesman said. “Like everything with Donald Trump, it was never about helping the country, just about helping himself. There is only one candidate in this race who will fight for bipartisan solutions to strengthen border security, and that is Vice President Harris.”
There are also open questions about who Harris might choose as vice president. Kelly is reportedly on the shortlist of those consideredThe Harris campaign spokesman confirmed that the review of potential vice presidential candidates has begun.
“This process has begun in earnest and we do not expect further news until the Vice President announces who her running mate and the next Vice President of the United States will be,” the spokesman said.
Gallego himself has spoken positively about the prospect of choosing Kelly as Harris’ vice presidential candidate, saying the former astronaut would provide a “jolt” to the campaign.
Kelly spoke outside the Capitol on Thursday left the door open to the question of whether he wanted to be Harris’s running mate – which continues to give Democrats in Arizona hope of seeing their astronaut on the ballot again.
“He’s phenomenal,” said Steven Slugocki, former chairman of the Maricopa County Democratic Party.
“I think if he were elected vice president, it would only help Arizona and Ruben win this election.”
