Are Republicans heading for another red wave like never before? That’s the truth, at least, if a recent round of polls from Morning Consult is to be believed.
On Tuesday afternoon, the polling firm’s latest results were released, and it was almost universally excellent news for Kamala Harris. For the first time in a very long time, a poll showed Trump losing in most swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
#New Poll on the parliamentary election
Arizona – 🔵 Harris +2
Georgia – 🟡 Tie
Michigan – 🔵 Harris +11
Nevada – 🔵 Harris +1
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris +2
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +4
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +2Morning consultation #C – 437 RV (each) – 28.7. pic.twitter.com/cV719ua5w3
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 30, 2024
Trump has not fallen behind in any polls since the general election began in Nevada. Arizona is also firmly on his side. The fact that Georgia is tied is another warning sign, and if North Carolina is that close on election night, Harris will be president.
Having said all that, there is reason to pause. I’m not going to sugar coat anyone’s word or dismiss outright any poll that doesn’t fit my desired outcome, but that doesn’t mean I can’t take an truthful and analytical look at what’s being presented here.
SEE ALSO: New Harvard/Harris poll and DNC leaks could sink Kamala Harris’ ship
First of all, it is extremely arduous to believe that Trump four Points in Pennsylvania, but 11 points less in Michigan. That’s a margin that just doesn’t make any sense at all. Also, that margin for Harris in Michigan would be bigger than Gretchen Whitmer’s win in 2022. Does that seem likely? It just doesn’t seem to make sense. Those two states were extremely close in the last two presidential elections. For them to be 15 points apart just doesn’t seem likely.
Add to that the fact that Morning Consult was an outlier throughout the presidential campaign. For example, Biden won both Pennsylvania and Michigan by significant margins. Follow-up debate When every body else Pollsters predicted he would crash and burn. They also predicted the president trailing by just one percentage point in Georgia (Harris is tied, according to the latest poll).
Okay, we’re doomed. Now I’m going to talk a little bit about these Morning Consult polls.
They were outliers for most of the cycle. Even *after the debate* they had Biden ahead by a good margin in MI and WI. In GA they had Biden behind by just one point (Harris is tied at the last count). pic.twitter.com/0nhhThNUxN
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) July 30, 2024
Finally, consider sample size. The smaller the sample, the more likely a poll is to be unrepresentative and produce illogical results. Morning Consult’s latest poll only surveyed 437 people in each state. That’s a miniature sample and could explain why the results in Pennsylvania and Michigan just don’t make sense.
All that said, I hesitate to dismiss these polls because I’ve been disappointed too many times in the past. You can factor these into the averages and move on, but you also have to acknowledge that there is ample evidence that Harris has challenged the outcome of the election. The Trump team, which on Tuesday (for some reason) again condemned Project 2025, is currently in a defensive posture. They need to get back on the offensive quickly. There’s too much at stake to let this slip by.
