LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Voters in Michigan could play a major role in choosing the next president — and they could also determine which major party controls Congress in 2025. Next week’s primaries for a vacant U.S. Senate seat and two congressional races in the swing state will set the stage for November.
Democratic U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin is the frontrunner for her party’s Senate nomination, despite a television actor challenging her. Former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers has the backing of former President Donald Trump and the financial backing of Republicans nationally in the race for his party’s nomination.
Slotkin and Rogers are seeking to fill the seat long held by Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, who announced in early 2023 that she would not seek re-election. Democrats currently hold a narrow majority in the Senate, but are defending far more seats in this year’s election.
The political drama in Michigan continues as the election unfolds. Slotkin’s run for Senate opens up a seat in the House of Representatives, one of two seats in Michigan expected to be contested in November. With Republicans defending a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the results of the Michigan election could have nationwide implications. And Republicans in Michigan themselves are looking to regain control of the state’s House of Representatives, which they lost in 2022.
Slotkin, a U.S. representative from Holly who is running for her third term, has positioned herself as the party’s frontrunner with her ability to raise funds and garner support, most recently reporting $8.7 million in cash in mid-July and announcing earlier this year that she plans to spend $8 million on advertising in the weeks leading up to the general election.
Her only main competitor, actor Hill Harper, who is best known for his role in the television series “The Good Doctor,” has raised significantly less than her, namely over $24 million.
Rogers, a former U.S. congressman who was brought out of retirement, is facing tough competition and also has the backing of Trump and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Other Republican candidates include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and physician Dr. Sherry O’Donnell. Businessman Sandy Pensler, who withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Rogers at a July 20 rally with Trump, will also be on the ballot because he withdrew his candidacy too behind schedule.
Republicans in Michigan have not won a Senate seat since 1994.
Rogers is far behind Slotkin in fundraising. He raised more than $5.3 million and has about $2.5 million cash on hand, according to the most recent campaign finance report. But national party groups have set aside millions for ad buys after the primaries in the run-up to the general election.
The campaign mirrored the US presidential election in many aspects. Slotkin advocated for the protection and expansion of reproductive rights, while Rogers criticized the Biden administration for its handling of border security.
Slotkin, who is of Jewish descent and has extensive foreign policy experience as a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official, has been criticized at times for not taking a tougher stance against Israel. Michigan has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the country, and supporting that community is critical in the state, where nearly 100,000 people cast “uncommitted” votes in February to protest President Joe Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team is trying to reverse the policies inherited from Biden in the White House and win back the support of Arab-American leaders in the Detroit area, particularly in Dearborn, one of America’s few majority-Muslim cities. Slotkin has pledged her support to Harris.
The nation’s attention will turn to Michigan as some of the toughest congressional elections in November could determine the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
Slotkin’s foray into the Senate race secured her a congressional seat in central Michigan. Both party candidates are unchallenged in their primaries for the swing district.
In Michigan’s 8th congressional district, which includes Flint and Saginaw, the contested seat has become vacant following the resignation of U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee. The Democrat, who has represented the region since 2013, has endorsed state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet for the post in her first term. Also in the race are Pamela Pugh, president of the state Board of Education, and Matt Collier, the former mayor of Flint.
Paul Junge, a former television host who lost to Kildee by more than 10 percentage points last year, is running on the Republican side. Also in the race are Mary Draves, a former chemical production manager at Dow Inc., and Anthony Hudson.
Detroit is expected to remain without black representation in Congress for the second consecutive year after a court ruled that a former senator and popular candidate in the 13th Congressional District did not submit enough valid signatures.
Detroit, whose population is nearly 80% black, had some black representation in Congress for nearly 70 years until 2023. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar still faces two challengers in the primary but has a immense financial advantage over Mary Waters, a former state representative who has served on the Detroit City Council since 2021, and attorney Shakira Lynn Hawkins.
Republicans in Michigan are looking to regain control of the state House of Representatives in November, with all 110 seats up for election. Democrats became the majority party in both chambers of the legislature in 2022, buoyed by redistricting and an abortion referendum that was on the ballot that same year. The legislature passed numerous bills on Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s agenda the following year.
Early voting for the August primary, a first in Michigan this year thanks to a 2022 referendum, began on Saturday, July 27.
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Associated Press writer Joey Cappelletti contributed to this report.
