It’s a battleground for the 2024 election, with millions of dollars being spent and substantial names in American politics emerging. But it’s not in the Rust Belt. And it’s not Georgia or Nevada, either.
It’s Long Island, a suburb east of New York City that’s home to some three million people who may play an outsized role in deciding which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats away from winning a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has proven an unlikely setting for some of this year’s most competitive elections.
The region is also an unexpected center of Republican power in deep-blue New York.
In some ways, the issues that pushed Long Island to the right in the last election could enliven any swing-state suburb in November, as Republican candidates focus their campaigns on crime, immigration and the economy. The Democrats’ move to replace President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ballot last month added another unpredictable variable to lower-leaning district races across the country, and both parties are trying to gauge the impact.
But here, Republicans have seized momentum by capitalizing on suburban backlash against progressive policies in New York City and portraying themselves as a dam that could keep the left from flooding Long Island with liberal excesses.
The strategy has proven successful so far. Long Island Republicans have dominated local elections in Nassau and Suffolk counties and control all but one of the island’s congressional seats. New York as a whole may vote reliably Democratic, but there are nuances not far from Manhattan.
“The Democratic Party is no longer the Democratic Party that we or I knew growing up. It’s changed. It’s moved much further to the left, the progressives are taking over,” said Joe Cairo, chairman of the Nassau County Republican Party and one of the architects of Republican victories on the island. “People are moving here, they’re fed up with the city.”
Perhaps Republicans’ most significant electoral victories came on Long Island two years ago, when the city was suffering from a pandemic-related spike in violent crime. Suburban voters were bombarded with a steady stream of apocalyptic headlines and television commentary that suggested an urban hellscape was just next door.
Republicans won all four of the island’s congressional seats, and a Long Island Republican, former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, nearly pulled off an upset in the gubernatorial election – a position Republicans have not held for years.
Democrats, however, now view Long Island as an excellent opportunity to win back seats in Congress and regain control of the House of Representatives.
The party won an encouraging victory in a special election over the winter for the seat that became vacant when George Santos was expelled from Congress. Democrat Tom Suozzi, running as a centrist, defeated a Republican district representative.
Republican U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, seeking a second term in a district east of Queens, is expected to face earnest competition from Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he defeated by less than 4 percentage points in 2022.
Democrats have also issued dire warnings about what a unified Republican-led federal government could mean for abortion access, following a formula that has worked elsewhere to boost turnout on their side.
“The consequences of the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, are beginning to have an impact and are resonating with people who care about access to reproductive health care,” said Gillen, a former city councilman.
Democrats on Long Island also hope to benefit from having Harris as their presidential candidate, because in a year when protecting access to abortion is a top concern for voters, they are excited about a female candidate.
“Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket has not only given new momentum to the presidential campaign. It has given a lot of hope to the Democratic congressional campaigns, because when Biden went under, they saw their prospects sink as well,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University on Long Island.
In New York, Democrats have sought to pivot their political strategy toward moderates after their defeats on Long Island in 2022.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has made crime a central focus of her efforts, winning concessions from progressive politicians in the legislature to change bail laws and toughen penalties for assaults on retail workers. In June, Hochul also made a last-minute decision to suspend a recent toll on motorists entering Manhattan after violent protests from commuters.
Republicans downplay Suozzi’s recent victory, arguing that the former congressman ran against a relatively unknown candidate in a low-turnout special election on a cool, snowy day. Still, Democrats believe Suozzi’s centrist approach has given their candidates a roadmap for Long Island.
“You can’t ignore the issues that people care about, and you have to win over the critical middle to win,” said John Avlon, a former CNN anchor and Democrat who is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Nick LaLota in a congressional district on eastern Long Island that has been controlled by Republicans for a decade.
However, it may be challenging for the Democrats to shake off the impression that they are too progressive for some suburban voters.
Joe Gillespie, a 58-year-old electrician who commutes between Levittown on Long Island and construction sites in New York City, said Democrats have become too liberal on crime, immigration and social issues to be able to make a convincing change of course.
“They’ve moved so far to the left,” Gillespie said. “People will assume they’re just doing this to win back votes now.”
The candidates must also grapple with a figure who will be at the forefront of any election in 2024: former President Donald Trump.
In parts of Long Island, the former Republican president is often celebrated as a hero by the many workers and New York City police and firefighters who live in the suburbs. Trump flags fly both in manicured front yards and in the backs of pickup trucks.
Trump won Suffolk County on the eastern half of the island in 2016 and 2020, but his lead shrank last time. He lost Nassau County in both elections, putting him 15 points behind Biden in the district where D’Esposito is now running against Gillen. Whether Trump will hurt or lend a hand Republicans on the island this year remains to be seen, but both parties are positive.
Violent crime has dropped significantly in the New York metropolitan area since the 2022 election, but Republicans continue to raise it.
Nassau County Republican Executive Bruce Blakeman has tried to score points with suburban parents by pushing to ban women’s and girls’ sports teams with transgender players from using county parks and athletic fields. And while it may not have much practical impact, the push reflects a line of attack that has worked for GOP leaders elsewhere.
The recent rules are now the subject of a legal battle. The state’s Democratic Attorney General Letitia James argues the ban violates the state’s anti-discrimination laws, but Blakeman said local support for the policy has been “overwhelming.”
“On my phone, texts and emails, there are probably eight votes for and two against,” he said. “The Democratic Party has drifted so far to the left that independent voters and reasonable Democrats can no longer support their positions,” he said.
