WASHINGTON (AP) — Wisconsin voters on Tuesday will choose candidates who will compete in some of the most closely watched elections of the fall.
Republicans will select a challenger to face U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who is seeking a third term, and will also hold primaries in two U.S. House districts that could determine who will win in Congress.
Voters are choosing candidates for the Republican-dominated state legislature, which is likely to be reshaped in November after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed modern bills into law earlier this year. Nearly two-thirds of the seats in the 99-member Assembly are open.
The Senate race is likely to get more invigorating in November, when it could play a role in deciding the balance of power in the chamber. Baldwin faces no opponent in the Democratic primary, and Republican businessman Eric Hovde has nominal opponents. Hovde, a real estate developer who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump this year, loaned his campaign $13 million – a sum that helped him clear the field and allowed him to run attack ads against Baldwin before the primaries began.
There are two notable primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. The first, the Democratic primary in the western 3rd Congressional District, pits political activist Rebecca Cooke against state Rep. Katrina Shankland. The winner will face Republican incumbent Derrick van Orden, a staunch Trump ally who attended the January 6, 2021 rally that preceded the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Cooke finished second in the 2022 Democratic primary. Although Shankland raised $2 million more than Shankland, $868,000, she has received more support from the state’s congressional delegation, local leaders and labor unions.
The second primary is the Republican primary in the state’s 8th Congressional District, a conservative district in the northeastern part of the state. Rep. Mike Gallagher vacated his seat in April, so Tuesday’s primary will be held in parallel with a special primary for the remainder of Gallagher’s term.
The same three candidates are running in both primaries: State Senator André Jacque, former Senate President Roger Roth and former Green Bay City Councilman Tony Wied. Wied, who leads with $859,000 in fundraising, received Trump’s endorsement before he even officially entered the race. Roth was endorsed by former Governor Scott Walker and has raised $140,000 less than Wied. Jacque trails in both fundraising and endorsements, but is the only one of the three candidates currently representing the region.
Wisconsin was one of the most competitive states in recent elections. The presidential and Senate elections in the US have seen only narrow majorities. In a state with almost 6 million inhabitants, the last two presidential elections were decided by fewer than 23,000 votes each, and the 2022 Senate election by fewer than 27,000 votes. This year is likely to be no different.
Finally, two constitutional amendments are on the ballot that would limit the governor’s power to spend federal funds, which are available to him without restrictions. One amendment says the legislature cannot delegate its authority to decide how funds should be spent. The second prohibits the governor from spending federal funds without legislative approval. They were introduced by Republicans in the state legislature and would apply to Evers as well as future governors.
Here’s a look at what to expect on primary night:
Primary school day
The Wisconsin primary election will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
What is on the ballot
The Associated Press will announce voting results and announce the winners in 59 contested elections, including the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, six U.S. House primaries, as well as for State Senate, State Assembly and two statewide ballots. Five of the U.S. House primaries will qualify candidates for the November general election, and the sixth is a special primary for the remainder of the 8th Congressional District term.
Who can vote
Every registered voter can participate in the primaries of each party.
Decision notes
The contested Senate primary is unlikely to be a closely fought one, so the only contested statewide election is the constitutional amendments. The fault lines on the amendments are expected to fall closely along classic party lines, with Republican state legislators supporting the two measures and Democrats opposing them. The state’s electoral history and political demographics will influence the electoral process.
Key districts to watch in U.S. House elections are La Crosse and Eau Claire in the 3rd District and Brown in the 8th District. These districts, which include the urban areas of La Crosse, Eau Claire and Green Bay, are the largest in their respective districts.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
There is no mandatory recount threshold in Wisconsin. Candidates can request and pay for a recount if the gap between the two leading candidates is 1 percentage point or less. In races with fewer than 4,000 votes, the gap can be 40 votes or less.
What about voter turnout and early voting?
As of August 1, there were 3,456,732 registered voters in Wisconsin. The state does not register voters by party.
In the April presidential primary, voter turnout was about 35 percent of registered voters. About 33 percent of the votes in that election were cast before primary day.
As of August 7, a total of 216,156 votes had been cast before election day.
How long does the vote count usually take?
In the presidential primary, AP first reported results at 9:10 p.m. ET, ten minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 3:25 a.m. ET, after about 88 percent of all votes had been counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there are 84 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
