Senate Democrats are more confident that they can retain their majority in the Senate with Vice President Harris at the helm, arguing that her momentum could give them a boost despite the confusing nature of the contested territories.
Republicans have long been considered favorites to win the Senate in the fall because Democrats are defending seats that are harder to hold. Republicans need just two seats total to gain a majority even if they lose the White House.
With or without Harris, Republicans are expected to win a seat in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin (IW.Va.) is retiring and Gov. Jim Justice (R) is the clear favorite. Unless both Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown and Montana Sen. Jon Tester can hold onto their seats in their Republican states, Republicans will win the chamber.
Still, Democrats believe their slim hopes have been boosted by the shake-up Harris has delivered to the party.
“The increase in energy is dramatic,” said Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who is running for re-election.
“I’ve even spoken to Democratic voters who said, ‘Well, no Democrat is winning the electoral vote in my state, but to win my race, I have to motivate young voters – and they are,'” Kaine said.
Democrats are relying on a similar script in their push in 2022. This year, incumbents secured re-election victories and Democrats expanded their majority.
But this time the map is full of landmines, especially in Montana and Ohio.
A Emerson College/The Hill poll A poll conducted earlier this month showed Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy with a 2 percentage point lead over Tester in Montana (48 percent to 46 percent). In March, the same polling firm had given Tester a 2 percentage point lead. Both numbers are within the margin of error.
In Ohio, however, Brown consistently had a single-digit lead over Republican Bernie Moreno. Survey conducted for AARP In the days after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Brown had a four-point lead.
In addition, the early numbers from Harris and newly-elected running mate Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota, have given new confidence to Democrats vying to keep seats in purple states in Democratic hands – including Senator Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Representative Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona) after Trump confident leadership In both states against Biden.
Thursday’s Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada towards HarrisA poll released Thursday showed Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Arizona, while Gallego – who is vying for the seat held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who is an independent but caucuses with the Democrats – has a lead of 11 points about Republican candidate Kari Lake.
Harris’ numbers have also recovered in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All three are within the margin of error, which is good news for Senators Bob Casey (D-Penn.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Representative Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan). All three were ahead of Biden, but the states were still considered contested.
“The mood is great. We have a really good feeling about the map and the energy on the ground is remarkable,” said Senator Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chairman of the Democratic Senate Committee, who referred to a recent campaign rally held in the state on Saturday.
“On a beautiful Saturday morning in the summer in Michigan, getting volunteers out on the streets is no easy feat. It’s like, ‘Do you want to go to the lake or do you want to go door to door?'” Peters said, adding that the number of volunteers “has doubled in just one week.”
Kaine pointed to a data point of his own to explain the growing enthusiasm among the base, saying that President Biden’s withdrawal from the ballot was due to Democrats in Virginia not having much interest in attending the Democratic National Convention later this month.
That has all changed now.
“Nobody contacted me and asked, ‘Hey, can I get a ticket to the convention?’ No one even tried,” Kaine said. “Usually you hear people say, ‘This will be fun!’ No one asked me.”
“Since Kamala became the presumptive nominee, my staff and I have been dealing with all these questions – ‘What hotel is the Virginia delegation staying at? Can you take me to the floor?'” he continued. “Before Kamala became the presumptive nominee, there were exactly zero.”
Before he dropped out of the race, Biden’s lead was had evaporated in Virginia, a state that has become increasingly democratic in recent years.
Senate Republicans also said they had seen a surge in support for the vice president in their states, further complicating the situation for them as many incumbents were already at the top of the ticket. Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), a close ally of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), called it a “stunner.”
Still, the map is brutal for Democrats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report says four seats held by Democrats are undecided, while every seat held by a Republican is rated as either “likely” or “definitely” Republican.
And some Republicans say Harris’s momentum will be short-lived, possibly fading by Labor Day as voters begin to pay more attention to the election.
“Five weeks ago today I was in Atlanta for the debate. It seems like an eternity ago,” said Senator Eric Schmitt (Republican, Missouri) before the August recess. “Labor Day – the kids are back in school, people are getting familiar with the fall campaign and election season. I still feel good about the presidential campaign and the Senate lineup.”
