WASHINGTON (AP) — The few truly contested congressional elections that are expected to lend a hand determine the balance of power in Washington next year are involving huge sums of money.
Democrats need to win just four seats to regain control of the House of Representatives, while Republicans hope to expand their majority and more easily push through their priorities, something they have struggled to do in a divided government.
While the most competitive races for House seats typically involve newer incumbents who have yet to make a name for themselves, some longtime congressional veterans also face tough competition for seats due to demographic changes in their districts.
Overall, the majority in the House of Representatives is likely to be the 16 Republican-dominated districts won by Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 and the five Democratic-dominated districts won by Republican Donald Trump. Such districts are lucrative targets for both parties.
Here’s a look at six of those head-to-head races to keep an eye on this fall.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
Republicans at the national level have previously tried to oust three-term Democratic incumbent Jared Golden, and this time they believe they have found the right candidate in Republican Austin Theriault, a state representative and former NASCAR driver.
Nearly $16 million has been set aside for political ads in the district, which Trump won twice. That’s a lot of ad buys in a relatively economical market. The planned spending is split about evenly between Republican and Democratic groups, according to AdImpact, which tracks media buys. House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican of Louisiana) visited the district this month and stressed the importance of the campaign.
Golden, a Marine Corps veteran, has opposed Biden’s administration on a number of votes, most notably being the only Democrat to vote against Biden’s COVID relief bill in March 2021.
Golden then voted for key bills to escalate infrastructure spending and expand benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits and other toxic environments. He also voted for Biden’s signature health and climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act.
4th Congressional District of New York
The Democrats see Long Island as an excellent opportunity to win back seats in Congress and secure the majority in the House of Representatives again. The election campaign will kick off with a repeat of the duel from two years ago: the recent Republican representative Anthony D’Esposito ran against the Democratic challenger Laura Gillen.
According to AdImpact, the groups plan to spend nearly $11 million on advertising this election year, with Democratic-leaning groups planning to spend nearly $7 million on ads and Republicans planning to spend nearly $4 million.
Gillen also had more cash on hand as of June 30, according to the Federal Election Commission: $2.5 million, while D’Esposito had nearly $2.2 million. It is unusual for the challenger to have more cash on hand than the incumbent.
D’Esposito is a former New York Police Department detective who won in 2022 even though Biden won his district by about 15 percentage points in 2020. D’Esposito has made public safety a priority of his campaigns and boasts of having allocated millions of federal dollars to support local law enforcement.
Gillen is a former mayor of Hempstead, the largest city in Nassau County, and is a powerful advocate for women’s rights to abortion.
Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District
Matt Cartwright is used to running in close races — and winning. The Democrat began his career in Congress in 2013. Judging by the resources pouring into this campaign, he’s once again in an uphill battle. Democratic groups plan to spend about $13 million on ads, and Republicans plan to spend more than $10 million, according to AdImpact.
His opponent is Republican Rob Bresnahan, who points to his experience as CEO of an electrical installation company and reinvests in local communities.
Cartwright represents a district in northeastern Pennsylvania that sided with Trump in 2020, even though Biden is from Scranton.
Cartwright voted against a sweeping House Republican bill to build another border wall and impose recent restrictions on asylum seekers, but his ads emphasize the need to vote to deport criminal immigrants in order to temper Republican criticism of border issues.
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Republican Rep. David Schweikert is used to winning congressional elections handily. But that is no longer the case. Schweikert won his suburban Phoenix district in 2022 by just 3,200 votes against a relatively unknown rival who received minimal support from Democrats nationally.
This time, the House Majority PAC, which focuses on electing Democrats, plans to spend more than $6 million on ads, while the leading Republican group, the Congressional Leadership Fund, plans to spend only about $4.9 million on ads.
Schweikert, who is serving his seventh term, will face Amish Shah, a doctor and former Arizona state legislator who recently emerged victorious in a crowded Democratic primary.
California’s 13th Congressional District
New Republican Rep. John Duarte won in 2022 by just 564 votes in a district that Biden won by double digits two years earlier, making this Central Valley district an automatic priority for both parties in what will be a repeat of the campaign of two years ago.
The Democratic challenger is Adam Gray, who served in the California State Assembly for ten years.
Groups close to the Democrats plan to spend about $7.6 million on ads. The Republicans have secured about $6.1 million worth of airtime, according to AdImpact.
The state’s agricultural belt is more conservative than most of California, with the cost of living and access to water for irrigation being the biggest challenges and priorities.
Duarte emphasizes his agricultural roots, growing grapes, almonds and pistachios. He says restricting government spending in Washington would reduce inflation. Gray touts money he brought to the region from Sacramento to store water and repair aged canals.
Democrats hope Gray will benefit from a presidential election that leads to higher voter turnout, unlike midterm elections that often benefit the party that does not control the White House. But Duarte can take comfort in the fact that he won the primary in March this year with nearly 55% of the vote, while Gray received only 45%. In California, the two candidates with the highest vote totals advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
3rd Congressional District of Washington
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will face Trump-backed Joe Kent in a rematch of the election campaign from two years ago, which the Democrat won by less than one percentage point.
Republicans see Gluesenkamp Perez as at risk in a district that Trump won by more than 4 percentage points in 2020. Republican groups have set aside nearly $6 million to buy political ads, while Democratic groups plan to spend about $5.3 million.
Gluesenkamp Perez supports abortion access and action to combat climate change, but is also open about owning guns. Meanwhile, Kent says Gluesenkamp Perez is only pretending to be a moderate.
The southern border could be a crucial issue in the race. The American Action Network, a Republican-aligned advocacy group, has run ads featuring the incumbent candidate saying, “Nobody stays up at night worrying about the southern border” in March 2023. She went on to say that people stay up worrying about money matters, such as the prospect of losing their home or a child dropping out of school.
But this comment has obviously become the focus of attention of Republicans, who accuse Democrats of not doing enough to combat illegal immigration.
Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizes her willingness to work with Republicans on border issues in campaign ads. One ad, which features some local public safety officials endorsing her, ends by saying she supports the message of “doing whatever it takes to secure the border and keep Washington safe.”
