For the casual election observer, the natural tendency is to assume that when a political candidate rises in the polls, his opponent falls. Although this is often the case, it is not always The latter appears to be the case in several respected national polls on the Trump-Harris race.
Kamala Harris‘ The boost in poll ratings is not due to a wave of voters who Donald Trumpbut rather Democrats and independents who were hesitant to vote for Joe Biden, giving Harris a recent face. Unfortunately, that recent face is tightly controlled by the liberal lapdog media, which continues to hide Harris as if in the witness protection program – and she happily complies.
Harris opens the Democratic National Convention on Monday after a remarkable run that has seen her gain a lead over Trump in several national polls — though not a significant lead in any of them. She is neck-and-neck with the former president in a half-dozen states expected to determine the Electoral College winner.
We are talking about voters who never They would have voted for Trump, but were instead afraid to vote for Biden, who cognitively doesn’t give them a voice. Now that Joe has been kicked out – he was removed in a virtual coup – it seems most Democratic voters are returning to give Harris and the party another chance.
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But it was enough to rewrite the history of the race. What was Mr. Trump’s The possibility of electoral defeat now seems to be a gamble for women, in which they may have the upper hand. HarrisThe RealClearPolitics poll average gave her a lead of 1.4 points.
The Emerson College Polling survey in July found that Mr. Trump with a 4 point lead over Mr. BidenThe August survey found that Ms. Harris up 4 points nationwide. Spencer Kimball, the poll’s director, said that includes shifts among voters under 30, over 70 and women. And while support among black voters hasn’t changed, the share who say they are motivated to vote has increased, Mr. Kimball said.
MS. HarrisAccording to the Morning Consult survey, approval ratings have also increased and are now in positive territory. Trumpis now under water.
More importantly for Ms. Harris, the trend line is good, according to a CBS News poll conducted in mid-July, before Mr. … Biden had given up the reins, Mr. Trump leading woman Harris by 3 points. The CBS poll two weeks later showed a 1 point lead. And the latest CBS poll on Sunday showed a 3 point lead.
According to CBS, the gigantic change for Ms Harris is a “surge in enthusiasm” among Democrats, who are increasingly saying they will vote. But voters are still trying to figure her out, according to CBS.
“Most voters think her views are similar to, if not quite the same as, Joe Biden’s,” CBS explained, adding: “And she is seen as somewhat – but not entirely – aligned with Biden’s Business.”
That’s why Harris is fleeing the Bidenomics movement and an ever-growing list of other Biden policies as fast as she can. That’s what Democrats do: They bankrupt the country for four years, and then, without batting an eyelid, they turn around and flee the policies they represent and the decisions they’ve made without batting an eyelid.
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According to a Fox News poll, Trump was one percentage point ahead of Mr. … Bidenand the August poll gives him a one-point lead over Harris.
Michael McKenna, a pollster who worked in the White House under Trump, said in recent months had a consistent lead in the polls, although almost all of them were within the margin of error. Now, he said, “we have a situation where they appear to be neck and neck.”
McKenna added:
Has anything changed? Yes, something has changed. Have the fundamentals of the race changed? Not really. We are still in a race that will probably be decided by four to five states and 400,000 to 500,000 votes. You don’t see any deterioration of Trump’s Numbers. What you’re seeing is a consolidation of the Democrats’ numbers.
When I see numbers like this, the first thing that comes to mind is the word with a T – voter turnout. And putting aside concerns about election integrity, this is troubling because the Democratic Party has historically been more successful at getting voters to the polls than the Republicans.
And finally this from Morning Consult:
Harris leads Trump at DNC: Ahead of the Democratic Party Convention this week, Harris leads Trump 48% to 44%, up 1 percentage point in the past week and tying a record set earlier this month. Harris has not trailed Trump in a single daily poll since we first updated this page with their head-to-head comparison in slow July.
Harris’ popularity reaches recent high: The majority of voters (50% to 45%) favor Harris, keeping her afloat for the fourth week in a row. Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, rose to 5 points underwater, continuing the upward trend of the last two weeks.
Voters continue to hear mostly good things about Harris: For the fourth week in a row, voters say by a double-digit margin that they’ve heard something positive (43%) rather than something negative (31%) about Harris. What voters hear about Trump has become slightly more positive in the past two weeks, after dropping 20 points in early August.
Vance’s image improves: The last month has been a tough one for Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance. His approval ratings fell from -1 to -13 during the announcement of his candidacy. But in the last week, his image has improved significantly. Voters are now only two percentage points more likely to have a negative opinion of him than a positive one.
Walz treads water: Two weeks after the election, the majority of voters (39% to 36%) continue to have a positive attitude toward Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz. This represents a slight decline compared to the previous week (39% to 34%).
CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and MSNBC were fortunately unavailable for comment.
