ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) – Former President Donald Trump’s planned campaign visit to Minnesota on Friday marks his return to a traditionally Democratic state that he has long claimed he can carry.
Trump will take a break from his hush money trial in New York to speak at the GOP’s annual Lincoln-Reagan fundraising dinner in Minnesota. Tickets start at $500 and go up to $100,000 for a VIP table for 10 with three photo opportunities with Trump. The dinner coincides with the party’s state convention.
Trump’s novel state campaign chairman is House Majority Leader Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who supports Trump even though the former president and his allies were instrumental in blocking Emmer’s attempt to become speaker last fall.
It’s unclear whether the Trump campaign will receive any of the money raised. The campaign did not respond to an emailed request for comment and Emmer declined an interview request. His dinner co-host, Minnesota Republican Party Chairman David Hann, also did not respond.
Trump nearly took Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes in 2016, when he trailed Hillary Clinton by 1.5 percentage points in a state no Republican presidential candidate has won since Richard Nixon in 1972. However, he returned to Minnesota several times in 2020. Democrat Joe Biden beat him by more than seven percentage points as he sought a second term.
Yet Trump continues to insist he can win in Minnesota. He boasted something similar on Saturday at a rally in reliably Democratic New Jersey.
At a private donor meeting on May 4 in Florida, Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita discussed the campaign’s plans to expand its electoral map to include Virginia and Minnesota, based on the Trump team’s growing optimism that both states are within reach .
“We have a real opportunity here to expand the map,” LaCivita told The Associated Press. “The Biden campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars on television advertising and on its ‘vaunted ground game.’ And they have nothing to show for it.”
Trump appeared to falsely claim that he actually won Minnesota in 2020 in an interview just before Super Tuesday.
“Well, I thought we won it last time, to be honest,” he told KNSI Radio in St. Cloud. “And I think we won it.”
There is no evidence that there were any solemn irregularities in Minnesota’s 2020 election. A handful of challenges to the results failed.
Trump said it makes no sense to him that no Republican presidential candidate has won the state since 1972. “In my opinion, it’s not that blue,” he said.
He later promised, “We’re going to make a big move to Minnesota, I promise.”
It remains to be seen whether this is a misdirection or a solemn attempt to win. Minnesota has a long history of liberal icons like Vice Presidents Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale and Senator Paul Wellstone, but it is also the state that shocked the world by electing former professional wrestler Jesse Ventura as governor in 1998.
Experts are divided on whether Minnesota will be truly competitive this time. Some say the economy continues to be a tender point for Biden, despite low unemployment and rising consumer confidence. According to state officials, the state’s unemployment rate is 2.7%, well below the national unemployment rate of 3.8%, due to robust employment and labor force growth, with wage growth outpacing inflation.
University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs said that while 2020 was a good year for Biden in Minnesota, he wasn’t sure the president would be as well positioned this time around.
“It looks to me like Minnesota is in play,” he said. “And with Minnesota in play, Trump’s investment of time and money makes sense.”
It’s not a great year to be an incumbent, Jacobs said. And even though the economy has improved significantly, inflation continues to weigh on the president.
“It could force Biden to pull money from states he thinks he can take away from Trump,” he said, “and he could reverse course at any time in the fall.”
But Steve Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College, said Minnesota’s electoral history makes him skeptical, although he believes the race there could be close.
“We’ve seen this movie before. “In 2020 and 2016, it looked like a Republican had a chance to win Minnesota, and that didn’t happen,” Schier said.
Ken Martin, chairman of the so-called Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, said the state has been a battleground for some time. He says it’s more of a purple state than a deep blue state.
“It’s not surprising that Donald Trump thinks he has a chance here,” Martin said. “But in a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, I think he will lose.”
While Republican strength has increased in rural Minnesota in recent years, this has been offset by Democratic strength in urban areas and the shift of suburban voters toward Democrats that accelerated after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Roe v. Wade had. While it is true that no Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006, when Tim Pawlenty was re-elected governor, it is also true that Democrats have narrow majorities in the Legislature and the state’s congressional delegation is 4 :4 is split.
Trump’s campaign has not been visibly on the ground in Minnesota this cycle, while the Biden campaign has tapped veteran activists to lead state efforts. The president’s team has also sent several surrogates in recent months, including First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff.
Biden should be able to take advantage of the state Democratic Party’s well-oiled turnout and fundraising machine. In contrast, the Minnesota GOP has struggled for years with debt, leadership transitions and factional disputes.
Minnesota Democrats had a huge year in 2022. They capitalized on voter concerns over abortion rights, re-elected Gov. Tim Walz and took control of the state Senate to win the trifecta of the governorship and both legislative chambers for the first time in eight years. Democrats now plan to run with the comprehensive agenda they adopted. Both parties expect to be presidential candidates in down-ballot battles that will see control of the state House of Representatives and a viable seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who enjoys support across party lines, is expected to easily win a fourth term against a little-known and barely funded GOP challenger, Joe Frasier.
Joshua Allan, a 36-year-old voter from the Minneapolis suburb of Oak Grove who works in construction, said the presidential race could be fierce. During a visit to the state Capitol as part of a rally against a proposed federal equal rights amendment organized by anti-abortion and conservative faith groups, Allan cited a list of economic and social issues that he said could swing the state toward Trump. He said there was no way he would vote for Biden, citing his record and his age of 81.
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