Votes on abortion access could attract voters to the polls in November who might not otherwise vote – and even a tiny number of additional voters could make the difference in the tight race for offices from state legislators to president.
Scholars and ballot measure experts disagree on the impact ballot measures have had on candidate selection to date. But following the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which ended federal abortion rights, these measures are considered the ones that could affect the outcome, if at all.
“2024 is a test in this post-Dobbs world of how having this issue on the ballot is going to affect the candidates,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, which helps progressive groups track and campaign for ballot measures. “It really depends on whether the candidates are willing to run on these issues.”
Voters in nine states are currently considering adding abortion rights to their state constitutions, the most crucial of many ballot measures.
Nebraska also has a competing bill that would enshrine the current law banning most abortions after the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. Additionally, New York has an equal opportunity bill that would prohibit discrimination based on pregnancy outcome, although it does not mention abortion by name.
If there are any voting issues that have a large impact on the choice of candidates, it’s probably abortion. But they’re not the only ones on the ballot. More than 140 questions will be asked in 41 states, including on marijuana legalization, immigration, voting procedures, sports betting and the minimum wage.
Since 2022, the abortion rights activists’ position has prevailed in all seven statewide votes on abortion, including in the conservative states of Kansas and Kentucky.
Dave Campbell, a political scientist at Notre Dame University, said there may be some parallels this year with the 2004 election. That November, 11 states passed bans on same-sex marriage, and President George W. Bush, who opposed same-sex marriage, was re-elected in a close race. Republicans won seats in both houses of Congress.
There is disagreement among scholars about whether the ballot measures – which were later superseded by a Supreme Court decision to allow same-sex unions nationwide – were a decisive factor in Bush’s decision.
Studies have shown that voter turnout was no higher in states where the legislation was on the ballot. But Campbell and a co-author found that more white Protestant evangelicals turned out in those states and that those additional voters favored Bush by a huge margin – including in Ohio, where his narrow victory was crucial to his staying in office.
Vice President Kamala Harris, who last week launched a nationwide bus tour promoting reproductive freedom, could see a similar boost in her campaign against former President Donald Trump, Campbell said.
Trump nominated the Supreme Court members who were instrumental in overturning Roe and called it “wonderful to watch” states set their own restrictions. He has also said he would not support a national ban. His running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, said Trump would veto such a bill if it landed on his desk.
Last week, Trump reiterated that Florida’s law banning abortion after the first six weeks of pregnancy was too restrictive, while also saying he would vote against a ballot proposal that would legalize abortion until the fetus is viable.
A significant number of Republican voters supported abortion rights, but most of the party’s candidates today are anti-abortion.
“It’s pretty difficult to vote for an abortion rights initiative and then vote for a Republican candidate,” Campbell said.
Kelly Hall, executive director of The Fairness Project, a nonpartisan group that supports progressive ballot bills, said ballot bills often receive more votes than any single candidate for public office.
However, she said that until the abortion measures of the past two years, there was little evidence that ballot issues would attract huge numbers of voters who otherwise would not have voted at all.
“For candidates who hope the election will be more about abortion than other issues, voting together with one of these reproductive rights measures is a huge advantage,” she said.
If ballot measures enhance voter enthusiasm and change the outcome of elections, they are most likely to do so in races that are already close.
In a race in Montana that could be crucial to whether Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester, who supports abortion rights, and Republican Tim Sheehy, who has criticized the voting bill, are neck and neck.
Tester’s campaign recently released three fresh ads promoting abortion rights.
In New York, a judge last month rejected the need to include the word “abortion” on the ballot proposal, as Democrats pushed to include the word in a state where congressional elections could be close.
Legislative proposals are also up for vote in Nevada and Arizona, two swing states where power in the state government is divided between the parties.
Arizona Democratic State Senator Eva Burch of Mesa said abortion was a key to her victory in the contested district two years ago and could be again this year.
Burch announced in a speech to the legislature earlier this year that she would have an abortion because her pregnancy was no longer viable. Her speech came shortly before the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a Civil War-era ban on abortion was applicable. The legislature repealed the law before it could take effect.
“One of the reasons it continues to be an important part of the discussion is because there is so much confusion about abortion care in Arizona right now and people just aren’t really sure where we stand,” Burch said.
The campaign team of her Republican opponent, Robert Scantlebury, declined to speak to The Associated Press about the ballot proposal.
Arizona is also home to one of the most contested congressional districts in the country: an area along the US-Mexico border where Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani faces a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel in his first term.
In a debate last week, Ciscomani, who immigrated from Mexico as a child, said immigration was the most crucial issue, which is also the subject of a national referendum.
He did not respond to AP’s request for an interview.
Engel helped collect signatures to put the abortion issue on the ballot. “So many voters practically ripped the clipboards out of our hands to sign the initiative,” she said.
While polls show support for legal access to abortion, the issue also mobilizes some anti-abortion activists.
Danise Rees, a 23-year-old senior at Arizona State University and vice president of the Students of Life chapter, said she switched from Republican to independent after the Dobbs ruling because she was upset that some Republicans were moderating their stance. Still, she said she intends to vote for Trump in the fall because he is more sympathetic to the anti-abortion movement.
“If the Democrats decided tomorrow that they were fully and even more pro-life than the Republican candidates,” she said, “I would vote Democrat.”
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Associated Press reporter Sejal Govindarao and AP/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative Corps member Gabriel Sandoval contributed from Phoenix. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-reported issues.
