A month ago, Kamala Harris was at the height of her popularity after Joe Biden had to drop out of the presidential race. The election campaign did not seem quite over at the time, but it was certainly not the best time for Trump’s campaign.
That has changed with the release of several novel polls showing the former president gaining ground and even leading. As RedState reported, the latest Times/Sienna poll, which poll guru Nate Silver calls the preferably Opinion polls nationwide showed Donald Trump leading Harris by one percentage point, which is significant considering the Republicans’ lead in the Electoral College.
SEE: Trump takes surprising lead in latest Times poll, changing perceptions of race
But it’s not just the national polls that are tightening. At the state level, Harris is experiencing some decline, and CNN recognized this on Monday. The network’s election analyst, Harry Enten, raised the alarmand noted that the vice president was in danger of losing the entire election because she failed to secure Pennsylvania.
CNN host Harry Enten raises alarm over Harris’ dwindling lead in a “very crucial” swing state pic.twitter.com/Nlk0Hztm7S
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) 9 September 2024
“So I want to look at Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. And what we’re seeing is a closer race in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, OK? That’s the difference between Harris and Trump in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” Enten told moderator John Berman. “A month ago, when you looked at the polls, New York Times plus four Harris, plus three Quinnipiac for Harris, Franklin & Marshall, plus three for Harris.”
“But look at the polls over the last week. And what do we see? We see a much closer race. We see a tie in the YouGov poll of CBS News. We see a tie in the CNN/SSRS poll,” he continued. “And that to me is part of an emerging pattern that is at a very crucial stage. What we saw was a small lead by Harris, but within the margin of error, which becomes a race that is much, much, much too close to predict as even at this point.”
If you take a look at the RCP Averageit’s currently tied. Of the last seven polls, there have been three ties, three showing Trump ahead and only one seeing Harris ahead. The latter would be the always pro-Democracy Morning Consult poll, which has been an outlier for most of this cycle. That’s a marked departure from the majority of polls that saw Harris ahead in the weeks immediately after she entered the race.
How crucial is Pennsylvania? asked CNN’s John Berman, perhaps looking for alternative paths to victory should Harris lose the state. Enten wasn’t playing along, laying out two scenarios that show Pennsylvania will likely be decisive. With that in mind, Harris’ decision to pass up Governor Josh Shapiro in favor of the man pictured below could become one of the biggest campaign blunders in up-to-date history.
There is no alpha male material here. pic.twitter.com/TkcOKhrNPP
— Burt Macklin (@BurtMaclin_FBI) 9 September 2024
All of this only raises the stakes of Tuesday’s debate. Any major error by one of the candidates could change the outcome. That’s not usually the case in debates, but it’s also unusual for a presidential race to have so close when it comes to available data. Perception will matter more than ever, and Trump has a chance to land a major blow if he comes prepared and has a strategy that allows Harris to self-destruct.
