WASHINGTON — The chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said Tuesday that his top priority in November is defending incumbents in tough races — with Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio at the top of the list for resources.
Gary Peters, also US Senator for Michigan, also sees several opportunities for the Democrats to win seats, but stressed that the election campaigns are still too invigorating to make predictions at this point.
“To be honest, my top priority is to get all the incumbents back,” Peters said. “But we also want to go on offense, and offense is going to be very important. And right now, our focus is on Texas and Florida.”
Peters said Democrats have seen positive polling trends in those two states in recent weeks, which could boost their chances of switching from red to blue.
Republican Senator from Texas Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Democratic Representative Colin Allred, and Republican Senator from Florida Rick Scott is running against former Democratic Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
The continued rise in support for Democrats in these two states could impact how much money Democrats spend on these campaigns, Peters said.
“We play to win when we make resource decisions,” he said. “And when we see opportunities like we did in Texas, we will invest accordingly.”
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter Prices In Michigan, Montana and Ohio, the Senate races are considered neck-and-neck, while Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tend to lean Democratic.
All seven of these seats are currently held by Democrats, making the election distribution particularly challenging for Peters.
Florida and Texas fall into the “likely Republican” category, suggesting that the Democrats’ chances are slim but not completely impossible.
During a panel discussion with the Regional Reporters Association at DSCC headquarters in Washington, DC, Peters said he believes the Republican Senate candidates fall on a scale of “flawed to very flawed,” potentially boosting Democrats’ chances.
Tester defended in Montana
Peters argued that the character of Republican candidate Tim Sheehy in Montana is one of the reasons Tester remains within the margin of error in the immense majority of polls, even though voters favor the Republican presidential candidates by double digits.
“Sheehy’s list of mistakes is long,” Peters said. “And that’s why people in Montana reject him, even in a state that will vote massively for Donald Trump.”
Peters said some of Sheehy’s problems stem from calls himself a rancher although I live on a dude ranch and own a business that is “waste of money”.
Because of Montana’s relatively miniature population, Peters said, personal conversations with voters and a candidate’s reputation can have a significant impact on the outcome of a campaign.
“Small-trade policy can make a big difference,” Peter said. “Just think of Maine with Susan Collins when she won. That’s because it’s a small state. Small-trade policy is important. People knew Susan Collins.”
Collins, a Republican, defeated her Democratic challenger in 2020 despite being considered one of the most vulnerable senators of the year.
Tester has a similar connection to voters in Montana, which could potentially give him an advantage over Sheehy, who recently moved to the state, he said.
“People know Jon Tester in Montana,” Peters said. “He’s a long-time Montana resident, a third-generation small farmer. His roots are there. He’s had the opportunity to get to know a lot of people in Montana personally. He can do that much more effectively than I can in Michigan with 10 million people.”
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines, who heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said this summer in a group interview with journalists in the RRA that his home state offers the best chances for the GOP to catch up.
And just last week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics moved Montana from the “undecided” category to the “leaning Republican” category.
“The result of this rating change is that there are now 51 Senate seats that are rated as safe, likely or Republican-leaning. This move solidifies Republicans’ position as clear favorites to take control of the Senate in November,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the publication’s editor-in-chief.
Kondik later stressed: “The election in Montana is difficult, and both sides are still very much engaged there.”
NRSC spokeswoman Maggie Abboud released a written statement shortly after this ratings change criticizing Tester as the wrong person to represent Montana in the Senate.
“Jon Tester is a diehard liberal who hates Donald Trump and votes for the Harris-Biden agenda 95% of the time,” Abboud wrote. “That’s why poll after poll shows him rapidly losing ground to Tim Sheehy. Montanans are no longer buying Tester’s moderate blather.”
“Candidate quality” in Ohio
In Ohio, where Brown is hoping for re-election against Republican candidate Bernie Moreno, the DSCC hopes to forestall a switch to the Republicans based on the “quality of the candidates.”
“Sherrod was able to win nationally because he is as good a person as he is, and that’s a big deal,” Peters said, noting that Senate elections are often viewed differently by voters than presidential elections.
Moreno is a flawed candidate and a fraud, Peters said.
“The stories he tells, stories about how he came to Ohio as an immigrant with no means and started a business there, have been proven false. He actually comes from a family, one of the richest families in Columbia,” Peters said, referring to an article from the New York Times that Moreno refuted.
Moreno was also sued by employees of his car dealership for not paying overtime, which is a “pretty stark contrast” to Brown, who has supported unions throughout his career, Peters said.
The DSCC is investing “significant resources in Ohio” to assist Brown win, he said.
Around the battlefields
In other swing states, the Senate elections will remain invigorating until the end, and many Democrats are expected to be neck and neck with Republican challengers until the polls close.
Peters said this should come as no surprise to anyone who has followed recent election cycles.
“Just because you have a really good candidate doesn’t mean you’re going to win,” he said. “You also have to run a really good campaign to win, especially locally.”
This is one of the reasons why the DSCC is investing significant resources to ensure that voters can actually get to the polls this fall.
“In the last election cycle, for the first time in history, we spent more money on campaigning than on campaigning on television,” Peters said. “I think that was incredibly important.”
The DSCC plans to follow the same strategy this year and ensure that Democratic supporters in swing states can cast their votes.
