I wrote previously about the novel Insider Advantage poll after the Michigan debate, which showed former President Donald Trump leading by a point, 49 percent to 48 percent, among 800 likely voters on Sept. 11-12.
📊 MICHIGAN REGION: @InsiderPolling
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟪 Other: 1%#86 (2.0/3.0) | 800 LV | 11.–12.9. | ±3.7%https://t.co/qq3iLzWUAS pic.twitter.com/UfrnJ0clIP
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) 12 September 2024
It actually shifted by three points from Harris +2 to Trump +.1 on August 8.
I wanted to dive deeper into the backend of the survey.
According to pollster Matt Towery, One reason for this was a five-point lead among the independents.
“The poll also found slightly higher support for Trump among African Americans (around 20%). This could be an exception or a reflection of the higher numbers among African Americans seen in recent national polls such as the New York Times poll,” Towery adds.
This 20% threshold is significant considering that Trump campaign representatives told the Post this summer that they hope to get 25 to 30 percent of the votes of black menThe former president received only 12% of the black vote in 2020.
That seems to be consistent with other indications that independents are for Trump. We’ve seen those indications in other polls, including an NPR/Marist poll and Fox’s focus group that showed how closely independents are following Republicans. But if that and the 20 percent of the black vote are true, Harris could be in big trouble on that front. I say that with my usual caution about “polls.”
Insider Advantage was one of the most precise polls of 2020, and this poll follows another local poll by the Detroit News that also had Trump ahead by 1 point the week before.
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Towery said the debate had “little to no impact” on the numbers, so if Democrats thought Harris would make a big jump in the polls, they’re out of luck. According to the Co/capable poll, Trump also had a 25-point lead among independents, although Harris was narrowly ahead.
As I noted earlier, CBS’ Major Garrett also found that support for Trump in Michigan was “real and unwavering” when he surveyed voters there. And he found this everywhere he interviewed people.
Harris needs to convince independents, but as this poll shows, they are unconvinced.
When you talk to them, they say she doesn’t answer questions and/or doesn’t say how she would be different from Joe Biden, who they think has failed. Even CNN’s Jake Tapper has criticized her for this.
READ MORE: Prepare for meltdowns: CBS report and post-debate poll show good news for Trump in Michigan
If you just give them gas and don’t give them a reason to come to you, they won’t.
You know how bad things were under Biden. You all remember that things were better under Trump.
