According to the Cook Political Report, Montana’s Senate election was no longer a tie but trending Republican on Thursday, with polls showing Republican Tim Sheehy ahead of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in a crucial race for control of the upper chamber.
The nonpartisan forecasting group took the step less than two months before Election Day, giving Republicans a boost.
“Today we are making a major shift — the Senate election in Montana is moving from Toss Up to Lean Republican,” said the Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report wrote“This means that Republicans are now even more likely to be seen as favorites to regain control of the Senate, regardless of the outcome at the top of the electoral list.”
Republicans need to win just two seats to regain the majority that has eluded them for four years. The West Virginia seat, currently held by outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (IW.Va.), will almost certainly go to Republicans, and Gov. Jim Justice (R) is slated to succeed him.
This means the Republicans are still one seat low, with Montana being their best chance.
According to a current AARP surveySheehy is 6 percentage points ahead of the incumbent, who has been in office for three terms. In the poll, he also overcomes the critical 50 percent hurdle.
The Republican campaign arm in the Senate told members at a lunch earlier this week that internal survey shows that Sheehy is leading by 4 percentage points.
Senate Republicans are also hoping that Bernie Moreno will defeat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D) in Ohio, but this election is widely seen as a jump ball.
The Cook Political Report rates both Ohio and Michigan as neck-and-neck races – where Democrat Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Mike Rogers (R) are vying to succeed Senator Debbie Stabenow (D).
In the elections in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Arizona, the trend is all towards the Democrats.
