We all remember the debacle that was the 2016 presidential election, at least those of us who have been paying attention over the past eight years. Many of us went to bed that night depressed by the dreadful prospect of Her Imperial Majesty Hillary I, Dowager Empress of Chappaqua, occupying the Oval Office for four years. After all, Her Imperial Highness had won by a wide margin according to the polls—but we awoke the next morning to a very different world.
In 2020, the polls were wrong, too. Most polls in the swing states showed Joe Biden with a clear lead. In the end, however, Biden only narrowly won.
Could the 2024 polls hide a similar miscalculation? Could there be a Trump surge that the Pollsters do not start?
The race between the former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is perhaps not as tight as the Surveys indicate.
The New York Times And RealClearPolitics Averages of national polls show that the two presidential candidates are neck and neck. In recent Opinion poll According to the Wall Street Journal, they appear to be neck and neck.
But do polls reflect the true state of the race? Here are three reasons to take current polls with a grain of salt.
There are several reasons why polls can miss significant trends and upswings. But there is one factor that is always challenging to predict in presidential elections: up-to-date voters. These could be youthful people voting for the first time, or people who were previously disinterested and are now motivated by current events – such as runaway inflation, a shortage of affordable housing or waves of uncontrolled illegal immigration.
To describe the year 2024 as an election like no other would be a gross understatement.
Given the many twists and turns the 2024 election cycle has seen, it is impossible for pollsters to predict what might change in the presidential race over the next 52 days. Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump and his subsequent exit from the campaign, Harris’ rapid rise to the top of the Democratic ticket, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s alliance with Trump are just a few of the things pollsters did not factor into their predictions just a few months ago.
In other words, polls are used to predict the outcome – and as the venerable saying goes, predictions are challenging to make, especially when they concern the future.
See also: NEW POLL: Kamala Harris won the debate – but Trump gained one point in voter support
Prepare for meltdowns: CBS report and post-debate poll show good news for Trump in Michigan
Post-debate poll explains Harris’ substantial problem and why Trump now leads in Michigan
No one in the Republican Party, the Trump/Vance campaign, or conservative/libertarian voters should be appeased by the possibility of an undetectable Trump surge. This will still be a close election (perhaps inexplicably, but that’s how it is), and not only must the Trump/Vance campaign and candidates fight to the end, but we all must not only vote, but make sure that all of our friends and neighbors who think like us vote as well.
We cannot afford complacency. A hidden recovery, however hopeful and however content it may be when it comes, cannot save us. Any such quiet recovery will be just that – quiet – and we must behave as if such a recovery never happened. Vote early if you can. Save your vote. Vote in person if you want – but vote at any cost and by all means, because the Republic cannot afford a Kamala Harris presidency.
