We are always reminded that when we look at opinion polls, statistics, etc., we should look at trends, not individual events or polls. A recent trend from Pennsylvania is intriguing—but Republican voters should not get too excited about these results.
PA applications for postal ballots:
2020, 50 days before the election:
🔵Democrats: 1,101,962 (+725,000)
🔴Republicans: 376,9562024, 50 days before the election:
🔵Democrats: 798,946 (+477,869)
🔴Republicans: 321,077If this is the breakdown of postal voting, we will be in a phenomenal position.
— End of Wokeness (@EndWokeness) 17 September 2024
The same report contains a compelling observation.
The game is about Pennsylvania, folks.
Register today. Close the gap.https://t.co/vXFNzOpEqQ
— End of Wokeness (@EndWokeness) 17 September 2024
That’s good advice. Republicans in Pennsylvania should boost their voter turnout.
But it’s an open question how good this news is for Republicans in Pennsylvania or the Trump/Vance campaign. Here’s what these numbers look like: Republicans aren’t losing quite as badly in mail-in voting as they did in the last presidential election. Yes, Democrats are more likely to operate mail-in and early voting than Republicans. Yes, Republicans are more likely to vote in larger numbers on actual Election Day.
Nevertheless, this is a difference of almost half a million votes.
This is a state where the Trump/Vance campaign must win. Without Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes, the Trump/Vance campaign’s path to 270 votes becomes very uncertain indeed. And yes, the campaign has hit Pennsylvania demanding lately.
Nevertheless, this is a difference of almost half a million votes.
Pennsylvania has historically been an significant state in presidential elections.
The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won an election without winning Pennsylvania was in 1948. Back then, mail-in voting was not an option. Since then, Pennsylvania has been an indicator; whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. The Republicans are closing the gap.
Nevertheless, this is a difference of almost half a million votes.
See also: Could Kamala Harris have an “undecided” issue in Michigan?
Kamala Harris’ campaign won’t like this message from AtlasIntel CEO about her chances of winning
Pennsylvania Republicans have no reason to rest on their laurels. As I have said before and will say again and again, this is a presidential campaign that will be fought to the bitter end and possibly beyond. It is an election that will have enormous consequences one way or another. The Democratic Party has traditionally been very good at playing the turnout game. Pennsylvania Republicans need to get just as good. The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania has Trump at a hair-thin lead of less than one percent – well within the error tolerance.
Trump/Vance must win this state.
If you’re in Pennsylvania, go vote. Get all your Republican friends to vote. Get all your Republican relatives to vote. If some of your friends or relatives are Democrats, don’t worry too much about them.
Trump still holds that narrow lead and is still attacking Pennsylvania demanding.
Nevertheless, this is a difference of almost half a million votes.
Choose, Pennsylvania.
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