Do not trust polls, but they can be captivating. I have always maintained that individual polls are not always so meaningful; it is the Trends we should look at this.
But sometimes someone comes along who gives cause for hope. Emerson Swing State Poll The data from September 15 to 18 appears to indicate that former President Donald Trump succeeded in securing a second term in the Oval Office through Grover Cleveland (not a consecutive term).
According to an Emerson College poll conducted in seven districts between September 15 and 18, the former president is ahead in five districts. If this result is confirmed, he would receive 281 electoral votes, which would put him well above the 270-vote threshold for victory.
Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia (50% to 47%), Arizona and Wisconsin (49% to 48% in both states), Nevada (48.4% to 47.7%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 47%), giving him a total of 62 electoral votes in the swing states.
Harris is ahead in North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Michigan (49% to 47%), for a total of 31 votes from these two swing states.
But is this really a reason for hope? I am skeptical. Remember what I said about trends? Let’s take a look at the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Survey averages for these states:
- Georgia: Trump +2.0
- Arizona: Trump +1.6
- Wisconsin: Harris +1.2
- Nevada: Harris +0.2
- Pennsylvania: Harris +1.0
- North Carolina: Trump +0.1
- Michigan: Harris +1.7
If we take these averages at face value and employ them in RCPs Voting cardThis gives the Harris/Walz ticket a 276-262 victory.
This is not encouraging and explains why the Trump campaign is rocking Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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Trump’s narrow lead in Emerson is also not reflected in any sense of achievement.
As other polls have shown, Trump’s appeal as the Republican Party’s frontrunner is not helping him in the subsequent elections. In all key states, Republicans are trailing their party’s frontrunner.
In Arizona, Kari Lake is seven percentage points behind Trump in the Senate race and 42% behind Democrat Ruben Gallego, who received 49% of the vote.
Mike Rogers is also 5 points behind Trump in the Senate race in Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads with 47% to 42%.
Even Trump’s razor-thin lead in Nevada does not save Sam Brown in the race for the Senate seat; he is on track to lose to Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen by 41 to 48 percent.
This is worrying because even if Donald Trump wins, he will need a comfortable Republican majority in Congress to push through much of his agenda. The current RCP Senate Card predicts that 50 seats will go to Republicans and 44 to Democrats, with six tiebreakers; House plan shows 207 Republicans against 196 Democrats, with 32 tied votes. These are not comfortable margins.
It’s like I’ve been saying all along: This election is not going to be a walk in the park. The Trump/Vance campaign had better prepare to fight to the end because it’s going to be a nail-biting battle, especially in Pennsylvania where we can expect both candidates and both political parties to invest a lot of money. This year, Pennsylvania will be the frontrunner, and if Kamala Harris wins that state, we can all go to bed early because it’s demanding to imagine Trump/Vance pulling off a win without that state. And Emerson is only one point ahead; that’s not a comfortable lead by any means.
Go vote. Make sure all your (Republican) friends and family members vote. Remember: the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.
