There could be a major shift afoot. There has been a real move back toward former President Donald Trump in some polls in recent days. The reality of Kamala Harris’s emptiness seems to be sinking in, and it looks like her dodging questions may now backfire.
We’ve looked at the latest NYT/Siena College and Emerson College polls. These have already shown some good numbers for Trump, with NYT putting him up 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia and 2 points in North Carolina. Emerson puts Trump ahead in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, tied in Nevada, while Harris is ahead in North Carolina and Michigan. If that continues, Trump will win.
READ MORE: First NYT/Siena, now even more polls that will drive the Harris team crazy
Now there is the Quinnipiac polla poll that shows a disastrous result for Harris, putting Trump ahead in the national vote.
🇺🇲 Quinnipiac National Poll
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stone: 1%
🟪 Oliver: 1%Last poll (27.08.) – 🔵 Harris +1
——
• No. 19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,728 LV | 19.-22.9.
• Party ID: D32/R30 | MoE: ±2.4%https://t.co/hFirxxVyz8 pic.twitter.com/riTdCczwX8— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) 24 September 2024
The lead has shifted two points in Trump’s direction. In August, Harris was ahead by one point. Now Trump is ahead by one point, 48 to 47 among likely voters in the race for the full field. If he is ahead by one point in the popular vote, that’s good news for the Electoral College. And that’s despite the fact that the poll has a slightly larger percentage of Democrats than Republicans.
Well, in general, I don’t like this poll. I feel like they’ve made mistakes in the past and favored the Democrats, but I’m pointing it out because even if this poll seems to be heading in that direction, it’s demanding to deny that movement.
Looking at the crosstabs, Harris looks even worse. Among independents, Trump is ahead 47 to 44. Even enthusiasm for Harris has dropped among Democrats since August, by 5 points from 75 to 70 percent. Reality is starting to sink in for her. Meanwhile, enthusiasm for Trump has increased 3 points since August. Respondents even said he cares more about the needs of people like them, 49 to 48 percent versus Harris.
This is where her downfall lies. On the most essential issues, the economy and immigration, Trump leads Harris by 7 and 8 points respectively, and most believe Trump could handle a crisis better (51 to 47).
But there’s at least one thing in the crosstabs that doesn’t seem to make much sense. It says Trump is winning 4 percent among white voters, 50 to 46 percent, and 8 percent among Hispanics, 52 to 44 percent. If Trump won those by that much, he would apparently win the top line by more than 1 percent. So that seems wrong, and it seems like it should be even worse for Harris. Also, I’m not sure I believe that number at only 50 percent than among white voters, although I think Trump is doing well with Hispanics.
The poll also contains a warning: 74 percent of Democrats would be “very upset” if Harris lost.
For comparison, Quinnipiac had seen Biden ahead by ten points at the same time (which means a deficit of 5.5 percent compared to the final result).
There have been a number of polls in recent days that have not been good for Kamala Harris. Here is another one.
At Quinnipiac 2020, Biden won by more than 10 points … https://t.co/TSfvRrr5sV
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) 24 September 2024
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