Vice President Harris is is slightly ahead in the national pollsbut her campaign has struggled to appeal to young Latinos, raising concerns among some Democratic strategists.
At the same time, strategists say, former President Trump continued to make gains with the demographic, boosting his candidacy key battleground states.
“There is definitely a problem with young Latino men who haven’t gone to college,” said Chuck Rocha, the prominent Democratic strategist who helped Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) target the Hispanic electorate during his presidential bid take. “Is Trump doing better than he should be doing? Absolutely.”
It’s not so much that they’re attracted to Trump, Rocha said. “But they were never attracted to the Democratic Party. You hear one candidate talking about preserving jobs in America and draining the swamp, while the other party talks about abortion or whatever the social issue of the day is.”
But Harris campaign aides on the ground tell a different story.
“I don’t think that narrative is fair. I think from my experience as a volunteer with the Harris campaign, they are actually reaching out to these often low-income communities. You know, in these communities there are a lot of people who have a lot of tough labor or blue-collar jobs or just haven’t gone to college,” said Jesús Rendón, a Phoenix native and Arizona State University graduate who volunteers with Harris.
Rendón added that the Harris-Walz campaign has opened offices in South Phoenix and Maryvale, two parts of Phoenix with immense low-income communities.
“They’re targeting these communities by, you know, hosting events in these specific offices. And I think the Harris campaign has really pushed to recognize and engage with these individuals, and they do that every day.”
Still, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday, Trump is ahead of Harris in the polls in some battleground states, while some Democrats who didn’t vote in the ballot are beating Republicans, reinforcing some Democrats’ theory that these States are still up for grabs. In Arizona, for example, a critical state with a immense and young Hispanic population, Democratic Senate hopeful Ruben Gallego is 6 percentage points ahead of his opponent Kari Lake. The same poll also shows Trump with a 5-point lead over Harris.
The Harris campaign has three disadvantages compared to Gallego.
Reproductive rights—the vice president’s strongest issue—resonate more clearly with Latinas; Gallego can run a campaign alone, which is unrealistic for a presidential candidate; and Trump is generally more popular than GOP candidate Lake.
But Democrats worry that Gallego, a former Marine with Latino roots, could have an ethereal advantage over Harris. He has spent a lot of time trying to attract the same voters — especially Hispanic and young — who would likely vote for Trump.
“In many ways they see themselves in him, and that’s exactly what Gallego was trying to do,” one Democratic strategist said.
Fernand Amandi, another Democratic strategist, said he was skeptical that Trump would actually win in the state. But even if he was, Amandi predicted Gallego would aid bolster Harris.
“The Gallego campaign is not distancing itself from the Harris campaign. “They are doing the opposite,” he said, adding that they would continue to make their case in the remaining weeks of the race.
“If Gallego wins by more than 8 points, Kamala will be on top no matter what,” he added.
But Democratic activist Rodell Mollineau said the New York Times poll also reflects Lake. “It probably has more to do with how tarnished Kari Lake’s record is than Harris.”
Polls show Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) also leading Harris in Nevada, suggesting that young Latinos’ personal identification with Gallego is just one piece of the puzzle.
Like Gallego, Rosen has more time to spend on the ground and faces a Republican who lags behind Trump in popularity, and like Harris, she has focused on reproductive rights as a pillar of her campaign.
This focus seems to resonate with young Latinas. Voter Registration Group Voto Latino recorded around 70,000 up-to-date registrations In the contested states between the end of July and mid-September, 86 percent of them were under 40 years senior and almost 70 percent were female.
But the Harris campaign says it is shaping the reproductive rights message to better reach young Latinos.
“It’s not something that affects me where I have to, you know, make a decision for my body. I have two sisters. The Harris campaign was really about acknowledging that – it’s about acknowledging whether.” “Someone would be your sister, your cousin, your prima, you know, your friend or even someone closer to you in your family stands,” said Rendón.
“What I’ve seen is that there’s a lot of enthusiasm for acknowledging these issues and putting yourself in other people’s shoes. And I know I definitely see that, and I speak for a lot of other young Latino men when.” They say, you know, watching [themselves in] the shoes of someone they are close to.
However, reproductive rights are higher for Latinas than Latinos. According to a UnidosUS poll conducted in August, 22 percent of Hispanic women said abortion was a top three issue, while 16 percent of men said the same.
The tables turned on immigration: 27 percent of Latinos in the same poll named the issue as one of their top three priorities, compared to 22 percent of Latinas.
For men and women, inflation was by far the top issue, with 58 percent and 59 percent respectively saying the cost of living was a top issue.
Although Harris has maintained her leadership on reproductive rights and has made some progress in blunting Trump’s influence on economic issues, Democrats still face a unique challenge when it comes to immigration.
“There is a group of voters in Arizona who are very interested in finding a path to citizenship and helping undocumented immigrants, and I think there are probably voters in Arizona who are looking at this very much through the prism of economics. “Border security,” said Kristian Ramos, a Democratic strategist.
“It’s smart of her to talk about border security, it’s smart of her to talk about the economy, but it would also be smart of her to talk about how we help fix our broken immigration system.” And that she has. I think that begs the question: What audience is she speaking to at any given time?”
In border states like Arizona, young Latinos can have seemingly opposing views on border security and immigration reform, two issues that often merge at the national level.
That can make it even more challenging for presidential campaigns to reach these voters because they lack face-to-face time.
“You need to run a campaign specifically for these men around the working class, the economy and populism rooted in the family – taking care of wife and children and talking about the responsibility of being a father, brother and son,” Rocha said.
Another Democratic strategist agreed that the Harris campaign needs to do a better job of directly appealing to younger Latino men, calling its lack of identity politics a “big mistake.”
“You do this by doing the opposite of dog whistle campaigns,” the strategist said. “In the same way [Tim] Walz is a permission structure for white voters. You need the rolling equivalent for Hispanics.
“When someone is unknown in the community, you need trusted validators to make the case and close the sale.”
