If recent poll numbers are anything to go by, this will be an fascinating – if not extremely consequential – election. Take, for example, recent polling data from Arizona and North Carolina showing Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in both states, while Republican Party candidates who were not elected in the vote are struggling badly.
Emerson College, in collaboration with RealClearWorld, released Their latest poll on Tuesday showed Trump leading Harris 50 percent to 47 percent in Arizona and 49 percent to 48 percent in North Carolina. The poll also found Arizona GOP candidate Kari Lake trailing her challenger Ruben Gallego by a whopping 11 points. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is polling nearly 20 points behind his Democratic rival Josh Stein.
New: Trump wins Arizona and NC, but Emerson says it’s very close in both states. Gallego is crushing Lake in the AZ Senate race and Stein is crushing Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race pic.twitter.com/F6y0tl9Vti
– John Bresnahan (@bresreports) October 1, 2024
These numbers are consistent with RealClearPolitics polling averages, so there’s nothing crazy fresh here. But the crosstab data you can see Hereshows some fascinating patterns. In North Carolina, nearly half of respondents said the economy was the most vital issue for them in 2024, and just over 50 percent said a Donald Trump victory would improve their personal financial situation. Sixty percent of respondents said they are worse off financially than they were five years ago, but 50 percent believe Harris will win the election.
Other vital issues for voters in the Tar Heel State: housing, threats to democracy, education and “abortion access.” It will be fascinating to see whether Trump is able to widen the divide in North Carolina after the hurricane; His response to the disaster was quicker and warmer than Kamala’s, and that could move the needle a little more toward Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump enjoys a comfortable and consistent lead in Arizona. The same cannot be said for Kari Lake, who is going down quickly and may find it impossible to get out of the situation. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are unpopular in the Grand Canyon State, and sentiment isn’t much better for Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. Like North Carolina, Arizona respondents said the economy was most vital to them, closely followed by illegal immigration.
Do election losses in North Carolina and Arizona mean Trump will have no coattails if he wins in November? The GOP has robust Senate candidates in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana, so there is some Trump effect at play, but it looks like the coattails aren’t reaching far enough for Lake and Robinson. Of course, each candidate bears most of the blame for their indigent performance in states that are favorable to conservatives.
What does this all mean for Republicans? Trump has upended everything over the last eight years, and this is his last election, so Republicans will have to think long and tough about the political realities post-Trump. Screening and recruiting candidates would be a good start.
The bottom line is that we learned the tough way that polling is not an exact science and that the numbers can change in the final weeks of the election. Things could go even further in Trump’s direction, especially as our country lacks leadership in a burning world. There is a leadership gap that Trump is actively trying to fill in the campaign, and it could pay off in spades.
Speaking of the campaign, RedState will be live blogging the vice presidential debate tonight (Tuesday). You won’t want to miss a minute!
