A series of tumultuous events have left Democrats hopeful but worried a month before the November elections, with the House and White House races too close to decide.
The unstable political environment — combined with extremely tough races in battleground states and districts across the country — has left many Democrats nervous in the final stretch before Election Day.
“I don’t take anything for granted,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), the House Democratic intelligence director. “We have to concentrate, we have work to do and if we take our eyes off the ball [we won’t win].”
Fires at home and abroad are fueling up-to-date fears in the party.
Hurricane Helene cut a path of destruction across parts of the South this week, triggering a massive humanitarian crisis while testing the Biden-Harris administration’s emergency response capabilities. And abroad, Israel’s war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon – and Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on Tuesday – have raised prospects that the deadly conflict will only escalate further in the coming weeks.
Democrats got some good news on Thursday and Friday, first when port workers on the East and Gulf Coasts agreed after just two days to suspend a strike that had closed some of the nation’s largest ports just before the election in favor of consumers threatened harm.
They are also pleased with the release of the Labor Department’s up-to-date jobs report, which shows that 254,000 jobs were created in September, far exceeding expectations. And they’re excited about a up-to-date analysis from the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election watchdog, that flipped five House seats in favor of Democrats on Friday.
Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, noted Friday that the DCCC has a $16 million cash advantage over the GOP’s campaign division heading into the final month of the campaign, according to party strategists has allowed them to expand the number card in their effort to flip the chamber.
“In this final election month, the DCCC is on the offensive across the battleground and we are very well positioned to take back the majority in the House of Representatives,” DelBene told reporters in a press briefing.
Still, the accumulation of turbulent events in a month known for its political surprises is also causing excitement, especially given the tension of the race and the high stakes in the results. In the eyes of Democrats, that means preventing former President Trump from winning a second term.
Polls from around the country show that the results are too close to be considered for both the presidential battle – in which Trump and Vice President Harris are in a horse race for the seven battleground states that will decide the contest – and for the duel for the House of Representatives in which the election will be held. The parties are fighting bitterly for the few dozen seats that will decide who will be in charge next year.
“We know this election will be on the margins, and we are not taking any vote for granted,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison told reporters Friday.
Hurricane Helene has presented several potential challenges for Democrats ahead of November 5th. The massive storm hit two of the seven presidential elections – North Carolina and Georgia – and the scale of the devastation will test the government’s relief efforts, with the risk of angering some voters. Those efforts appear insufficient.
The damage will also pose logistical complications as party officials try to maximize voter turnout in a region where entire cities have been washed away. Harrison said Friday that he is already in contact with Democratic officials in North Carolina who are preparing plans to utilize “mobile voting machines and other things” to allow storm victims to vote. He also said he planned to reach out to the chairman of the Republican National Committee to ensure voter empowerment, and he pointed to statements from North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who has vowed to make voting access a priority to make priority.
“He understands we have an important election coming up,” Harrison said of Cooper. “[so] He wants to ensure that every voter in this region has the opportunity to make their voices heard and is not disenfranchised because of the disaster.”
But North Carolina isn’t the only battleground state caught up in the turmoil of current events. Michigan is considered crucial to the Democrats’ chances of retaining the White House. And with two toss-up House seats in play, the Great Lakes State could also play a crucial role in deciding which party controls the House next year.
Michigan has an outsized Muslim population, and many of those voters are incensed about the Biden administration’s support of Israel amid the rising death toll of Palestinians in Gaza. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian American in Congress, joined the “non-committal” movement when Biden was still on the ticket, and she has so far declined to endorse Harris.
Harris has struck a different tone than Biden on the conflict, but has not signaled a significant shift in strategy. And party leaders refused to allow a Palestinian doctor to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, angering many Muslim voters, some of whom have vowed to withhold their support for Harris in November.
The outrage has complicated the Democrats’ path to victory in Michigan – and thus the White House.
“I feel good about flipping the House, I’m worried about Michigan,” Dingell said.
Rep. Dan Kildee, another Democrat from Michigan, offers a similar warning. He said Democrats could win the state if they could entice their base voters to participate. But that remains a challenge, he said.
“Michigan is going to be tough. It’s always a tough state,” Kildee said. “I think we have superior candidates when it comes to House races, so that makes a large difference. And of course the same goes for the Senate and White House races.
“But it is a state of confusion. It will depend on it working.”
The presidential candidates are well aware of Michigan’s importance to the contest.
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the GOP vice presidential nominee, toured the Great Lakes State on Wednesday to mobilize voters. Trump visited him on Thursday. Harris followed suit on Friday. And earlier this week, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), Harris’ running mate, attended a campaign rally aimed at Muslim Americans. His message was aimed at appealing to voters turned off by the Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East conflict.
