The off-year election last Tuesday changed the shutdown fight, just not in the way many on Capitol Hill had hoped.
Earlier last week, lawmakers on both sides had felt a glimmer of optimism that they were on the path to resolving the budget crisis. Centrist senators from both parties were negotiating a possible spending compromise, and observers predicted there would be an election on November 4th Grease the skids for quick reopening the government.
Exactly the opposite happened.
After Tuesday’s blue wave, Democrats feel like they’ve done it the political wind at your backwhich enables them to meet their demand that health subsidies be part of any agreement to end the shutdown.
Republicans in Congress are also weighing in, insisting they won’t negotiate health care or anything else until the government comes back to power.
And President Trump has done nothing to close that gap. Since the election, he has continued to reject Democrats’ requests to begin bipartisan talks, instead calling on Republican senators to end the shutdown through the strictly partisan maneuver of Eliminate the Senate filibuster — an idea that even most Republicans in the Capitol reject.
The combination has heightened tensions between Republicans and Democrats, who are more apart than at any point during the shutdown, and muddled the path to an eventual resolution. In fact, by the end of last week, the nascent agreement in the Senate that had been discussed just days earlier collapsed.
That breakdown became clear after a Democratic luncheon in the Senate on Thursday, when even centrist Democrats involved in the talks signaled they were far from reaching an agreement. Republican leaders wasted no time in pointing the finger at liberal Democrats, who relied on Tuesday’s election results to pressure their moderate colleagues to abandon the emerging bipartisan agreement.
“All I know is that the pep rally they had at lunchtime yesterday obviously changed some minds,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (D-D.) told reporters at the Capitol on Friday. “I thought we were on the right track. We had given them everything they wanted – or asked for – and at some point… they have to take yes for an answer.
“They were trending in that direction, and then yesterday the wheels fell off, so to speak,” Thune added. “We are ready to engage when they are.”
Ahead of the Nov. 4 election, many lawmakers and other political experts had predicted that the results would facilitate resolve stubborn partisan gridlock and persuade one side or the other to soften their calls for an end to the shutdown, which entered its 40th day on Sunday.
“The election will give someone some influence,” a Democratic strategist said a few days before voters went to the polls. “Everything changes – your feeling of ‘How much will I resist?’ will change on Tuesday.
It didn’t turn out that way.
While the results heavily favored Democrats — and some had predicted that a blue wave would give Democrats the political space to reopen the government and turn to health care later — the overwhelming victories only encouraged party leaders to double down on their demands.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) summed up those sentiments a day after the election, saying the results were “a resounding rejection of Donald Trump and the Republicans’ failed policies” — one that would only encourage Democrats to stick to their guns.
“Our position as House Democrats – working closely with our friends and colleagues on the other side of the Capitol, Senate Democrats – remains the same,” Jeffries told reporters at the Capitol.
A day later, Senate Democrats held their luncheon that appeared to unite the party behind the strategy of insisting on an ObamaCare solution as part of any deal to reopen the government. And on Friday, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) went a step further by suggestingfor the first time, a set of specific provisions that Democrats want to see as part of a deal, including a one-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies.
“Democrats have said we must address the health care crisis, but Republicans have repeatedly said they will not negotiate to reduce health care costs until the government reopens,” Schumer said on the floor. “So let’s find a way to honor both positions.”
The one-year window for ACA subsidies was a concession from Democrats, who had previously insisted the extension was indefinite. Still, Republicans wasted no time Rejection of Schumer’s proposal They are spiraling out of control, revealing that their election defeats last week did little to soften their own calls for the government to reopen before health talks begin.
“Anyone who follows this knows this is a non-starter,” Thune said Friday after Schumer’s speech. “There is no option. Extending ObamaCare is a matter of negotiation. We will negotiate that as soon as the government opens up.”
But the Democrats aren’t giving in either. “The Democrats’ position is unchanged,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters last week.
And the election has given them fresh impetus — and fresh pressure from their liberal base — to stay that course.
While the president’s party has performed poorly in off-year elections following a presidential campaign in the past – and Democrats were predicted to win major elections in Virginia, New Jersey and California – they were not expected to win this one by as vast a margin as they did.
In Virginia, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) won the gubernatorial race by 15 points. In New Jersey, current Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) cruised to victory by 13 points. And Californians voted overwhelmingly to redraw the Golden State’s House map to secure more Democratic seats – a direct response to Trump’s redistricting campaign in a number of Republican-led states.
Republican leaders downplayed the results, saying they had no bearing on what could happen in next year’s midterm elections when it comes to the House of Representatives.
“What happened last night was blue states and blue cities voting blue,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). said the morning after. “We all saw this coming.”
Democrats have insisted all along that GOP leaders sit down and discuss a budget compromise to prevent expanded ObamaCare subsidies from expiring at the end of the year.
Calls for fresh talks were rejected by Thune, Trump and Johnson, saying there was nothing to negotiate because their stopgap proposal to reopen the government was a “clean” bill that kept spending at current levels. Last week, Schumer and Jeffries wrote to Trump asking for another meeting. It was ignored.
But if history is any indicator, Trump’s involvement will be crucial if the sides hope to reach an agreement. That was the case during the 2019 shutdown, during Trump’s first term, and a growing number of lawmakers – even on the Republican side – Say that it will also apply to this budget dispute.
“He needs to get off the sidelines and get into the game. Because until he does that, this government will remain shut down,” Jeffries told reporters at the Capitol on Thursday. “Mike Johnson and John Thune have no authority to act independently.”
