We wrote about some pretty massive news on Tuesday about how Kamala Harris’ team feels like North Carolina is “slipping out of their control” in the home stretch of the campaign.
“Of all seven [states]“That seems to be slipping away a little,” NBC News quoted a Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
You have good reason to be nervous. As we reported, black first-time voter turnout in the Old North State this election cycle is low compared to previous years. Additionally, Republican voters have performed unusually well in early voting here so far, a trend that continues today The numbers from Tuesday.
READ MORE: Code Red at Kamala HQ on Worries North Carolina Is ‘Slipping Away’ (And Here’s Why)
That NBC News story listed not only North Carolina but also Nevada as states that Harris viewed as “insurance states” in case she lost the critical “blue wall” state of Pennsylvania to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
But as it turns out, there are also worrying signs for Harris in the Silver State related to the early voting numbers, as longtime Nevada journalist Jon Ralston indicated:
The early voting blog is updated!
From: Clark D Firewall
In: Rural R-Firewall.
It’s true: 16,500 votes so far because of the massive landslides and the turnout is higher than the city’s turnout.
The Democrats need more mail, lots of indies or massive trouble in NV.https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA
– Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2024
Of his analysis As of Wednesday morning (bold emphasis):
Clark Firewall: 7,000
Rural Firewall: 16,500
333,000 People voted, right 16.6 percent. If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the votes were cast.
[…]
Republicans have one 2.5 percent Switch edge.
[…]
Harris needs to win by double digits in India to win if she and Trump hold their base. Repubs typically win Election Day, so you’d still prefer to be them now, but until early voting ends, the question remains whether Election Day will look much different this year because so many Repubs, especially in rural areas Nevada, vote early.
In another entry, Ralston wrote that “the Clark firewall has all but collapsed,” and suggested that the Republicans who would lead in early voting if it stood “could pose a serious threat to Democrats and to Kamala Harris.”
Keep in mind that Ralston is not a fan of the Republicans and Trump in particular. So when he releases this information, you know it must be real.
As further proof, here he tries to keep hope alive:
You can trust Andy – intelligent guy.
And the fact that so many Indies are newborn gives Democrats hope that they can overturn the Republicans’ mighty turnout. That means many of the indies are Democrats in disguise.
We’ll see. https://t.co/GGWUWd1y0x
– Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2024
Although biased, Ralston was a fairly reliable source for Nevada numbers. So, as he says, “We’ll see” how things develop there on November 5th.
My colleague Brittany Sheehan, who is also closely following developments in Nevada, previously wrote about early voting in the state and the encouraging signs for Republicans that emerged. She noted that “if Republicans can maintain the momentum and enthusiasm through Election Day, the stage is set for an exciting opportunity to potentially secure a major victory for Trump.”
As always, we will keep you updated.
RELATED: Trump-backed Brown gets a knockout blow in Nevada Senate debate over Democrats’ sketchy stock trading
