WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in nine states are deciding whether their state constitutions should guarantee a right to abortion and are weighing ballot measures designed to boost turnout in a number of key races.
Passage of certain changes in Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska and South Dakota would likely result in the repeal of bans or restrictions that currently block access to abortion to varying degrees for more than 7 million women of childbearing age living in those states .
The future legality and availability of abortion does not depend solely on ballot measures, as policies could change depending on who controls Congress and the presidency. The same goes for state governments—including legislatures that prosecute modern laws, state supreme courts that decide the constitutionality of laws, attorneys general that decide to defend them, and district attorneys that enforce them.
If all abortion rights measures pass, “it will be a sign of how tremendous support for reproductive rights has become,” said Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California Davis School of Law and an expert on the history of reproductive rights in the United States
“If some of them fail,” she added, “some conservatives will look for guidance to figure out what was the magic ingredient that allowed conservatives to stem the tide.”
Voters supported abortion rights
Abortion rights advocates have prevailed in all seven measures taken since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade repealed and ended nationwide abortion rights. That decision opened the door to bans or restrictions in most Republican-controlled states — and access protections in most Democratic-controlled states.
Abortion rights campaigns have a gigantic fundraising advantage this year. Their opponents’ efforts focus on portraying the amendments as too extreme, rather than portraying abortion as immoral.
Currently, 13 states enforce bans at all stages of pregnancy, with some exceptions. In most cases, four more bar abortions occur after about the sixth week of pregnancy – often before women even realize they are pregnant. Despite the bans, the number of monthly abortions in the U.S. has increased slightly due to the increasing employ of abortion pills and organized efforts to assist women travel for abortions. Still, advocates say the bans have constrained access, particularly for lower-income and minority residents of states with bans.
The bans are also part of a central argument in the presidential election campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris calls them “Trump abortion bans,” citing former President Donald Trump’s role in overturning Roe v. Wade. Harris, meanwhile, has portrayed herself as a direct and consistent advocate for reproductive health and rights, including Black maternal health.
Trump has struggled to bridge a divide between his own anti-abortion base and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights, relying on his blanket answer that abortion rights should be left to individual states.
His changing positions on reproductive rights include vetoing a nationwide abortion ban in October, just weeks after the presidential debate, when he repeatedly refused to comment on it. Trump has also regularly taken credit for the appointments of three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade.
Trump’s attempt to take a more cautious stance on abortion mirrors efforts by many Republican congressional candidates as the issue has proven to be a major vulnerability for Republicans. In competitive congressional races from coast to coast, Republicans distanced themselves from the more aggressive anti-abortion policies of their party and their allies, despite their past experience on the issue and previous statements opposing abortion rights.
The measures could reverse bans in five states
While the voting questions have similar goals, each question addresses its own political circumstances.
There is an additional obstacle to passing protections in reliably Republican Florida: Supporters of the amendment must receive at least 60% of the vote.
Passing it there and repealing a six-week ban that took effect in May would be a blow to Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican with a statewide profile who has steered state GOP money to the cause and whose administration has also weighed in, with a campaign against the measure, investigators interviewing people who signed petitions to put it on the ballot and threats against television stations that aired a commercial supporting it.
There are competing ballot measures in Nebraska. Abortion would be allowed later in pregnancy. The other would enshrine in the constitution the state’s current law, which bans most abortions after 12 weeks – but would allow further restrictions.
In South Dakota, the measure would allow some regulations regarding women’s health after 12 weeks. Because of this wrinkle, most national abortion rights groups do not support it.
In some states, particularly Missouri, enacting changes may not immediately expand access. Courts would be asked to lift the bans; and there could be legal disputes about this. Clinics would have to raise staff and obtain licenses. And some restrictions may remain in effect.
Arizona, the site of the presidential election, bans abortions after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy.
The ballot measure there gained momentum after a state Supreme Court ruling in April found that the state could enforce a strict 1864 ban on abortion. Some Republican lawmakers joined with Democrats to repeal the law before it could be enforced.
The measures would anchor current access laws elsewhere
In the Democratic-controlled states of Colorado and Maryland, ballot measures would largely integrate existing policies into state constitutions, although Colorado’s version could also remove financial barriers to abortion. To get through it would require 55% of the vote.
Measures to maintain voting access are also on the horizon in Montana, where a race for U.S. Senate could assist determine control of the chamber, and in Nevada, a battleground in the presidential election.
In Nevada, where control of state government is divided, the ballot measure would need to pass this year and again in 2026 to take effect.
New York also has a measure on the ballot that supporters say would strengthen abortion rights. It does not contain the word “abortion,” but rather prohibits discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes and reproductive health care and autonomy.”
