Voters walk to a polling station in a school gym in New Orleans. Republicans could gain dozens of state legislative seats if the U.S. Supreme Court weakens a federal voting rights law, according to a up-to-date analysis. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Republicans could gain nearly 200 state legislative seats across the South if the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down a key provision of the federal Voting Rights Act, according to a up-to-date analysis.
According to the analysis by Fair Fight Action, a progressive voting rights group based in Georgia, in collaboration with the Black Voters Matter Fund, which advocates for black voters, the bulk of the gains would be concentrated in 10 Republican-controlled state legislatures in the South.
The analysis presented in a report The report released Monday by the groups underscores progressives’ concerns about the potential consequences of the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision in a case called Louisiana v. Callais. While the case focuses on the constitutionality of Louisiana’s congressional map, the decision’s impact could extend to statehouses across the country.
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority is likely to significantly weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a landmark 1965 civil rights law that prohibits racial discrimination in voting access. Section 2 restricts racial gerrymandering and previously limits the power of lawmakers to draw districts that weaken the voting rights of racial minority voters.
A sweeping court decision could give state lawmakers freer hands to create congressional and state legislative districts that weaken the power of minority voters — as well as districts for local governments such as county commissions, city councils and school boards. The justices held oral arguments in October; A decision could be made at any time.
At the state legislative level, a court ruling striking down Section 2 could cause Democrats to lose about 191 seats, according to the analysis, which examined how state legislative districts might be redrawn if Section 2 is no longer in effect. Most of these seats are currently held by black representatives in districts where minority voters make up the majority of residents.
“This is a fatal blow to Black representation in the South,” Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of Fair Fight Action, said in an interview.
The total number of legislative districts in 10 Southern states where black or Hispanic voters make up the majority could fall from 342 to 202. These states are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.
Some Republican states argue that courts have interpreted Section 2’s protections too broadly, unfairly limiting lawmakers’ ability to draw favorable maps.
Alabama and 13 other GOP states said in a brief filed with the Supreme Court earlier this year that Section 2 has become the “proverbial golden hammer” that plaintiffs and courts wield in their never-ending search for a nail.
If the Supreme Court weakens the Voting Rights Act, it is unclear whether state legislatures would seek redistricting of state legislative districts by mid-decade. Redistribution typically occurs every 10 years after the census.
At the federal level a previous analysis Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund estimate Republicans could gain an additional 19 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives if Section 2 protections are repealed.
Although some states have already adopted up-to-date congressional plans this year, those efforts have proven extremely controversial. Some states, such as Indiana and Kansas, have abandoned or rejected them for now.
Stateline reporter Jonathan Shorman available at jshorman@stateline.org.
This story was originally produced by State borderwhich is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network that includes West Virginia Watch, and is a 501c(3) public charity supported by grants and a coalition of donors.
