Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George’s County Executive clarified Maryland’s Senate Democratic primary against Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) on Tuesday brings her one step closer to her goal of becoming the first Black woman to represent the Old Line State in the Senate.
First, however, her must defeat popular former governor Larry Hogan (R) – far from certain. The pair are vying for the seat held by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) in a race that shouldn’t have much drama for Democrats became more unpredictable with Hogan’s appearance.
Meanwhile, prominent moderate Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) fended off a challenge against conservative candidate Dan Frei. At the same time, potential breakout star Harry Dunn, a former Capitol Police officer who defended lawmakers during the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021, lost his Democratic primary to a candidate backed by a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)
At the top of the list, President Biden and Donald Trump easily cruised to victory. But problems lurk for both men, as Nikki Haley was able to collect particularly vast numbers of votes in all three GOP primaries.
Here are five takeaways from the primary elections in Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska:
Trone’s deep pockets weren’t enough to win
Alsobrooks, who enjoyed the support of prominent Maryland Democrats, won the Democratic contest for Cardin’s seat despite Trone spending tens of millions of dollars on the primary.
Trone, the co-owner of Total Wine, spent at least $61 million of his own money to face Hogan this fall. While the Maryland congressman had the clear money advantage, Alsobrooks had the support of party establishment figures like Gov. Wes Moore (D), Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.). among others. Trone was endorsed by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Trone also stumbled repeatedly throughout the campaign, including airing a commercial in which one of his supporters suggested that Alsobrooks needed “training wheels” and another time when he accidentally used a racial slur during a House hearing .
In compact, the primary underscored that no amount of money guarantees a candidate’s victory.
Although the nonpartisan election watchdog Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Democratic,” Hogan’s entry into the race will force Democrats to spend money on a supposedly secure blue seat.
Trump’s Haley problem isn’t going away
Several of Tuesday’s primaries also highlighted a pressing issue for Trump – an ongoing protest voting movement that supported his former rival Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race in March.
In both Maryland and Nebraska, Haley had received 20 percent of the GOP primary vote as of behind schedule Tuesday evening.
Over in deep-red West Virginia, Haley fared worse, receiving only about 9 percent of the primary vote, with 89 percent of the vote reported at the time of publication. While all of these numbers may still fluctuate, they highlight an ongoing problem for the former president as he struggles to gain traction with a faction of the Republican Party that remains skeptical or hostile to him.
In Indiana last week, Haley received a remarkable 22 percent of the vote — a surprisingly high percentage of Republican support considering the former U.N. ambassador had already been out of the race for two months at that point.
While Trump and Biden are unlikely to be close in many of those states this fall, the Haley votes could serve as a warning to the former president in swing states where even close margins could ultimately make a difference.
At the same time, however, Biden has had to contend with persistent voices of protest against his administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, putting his re-election at risk.
AIPAC scores a victory in Maryland
The AIPAC-allied super PAC scored a victory in the Old Line State after supporting Sen. Sarah Elfreth (D) in the Democratic contest to fill the seat held by retiring Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.).
Elfreth’s most prominent Democratic challenger was Dunn, who became a household name several years ago with his testimony before the House special committee investigating the Capitol insurrection. Both candidates had pledged their support to Israel.
Dunn criticized the United Democracy Project for wading into the race. write in a post on X Last month: “A SuperPAC funded by extremist MAGA donors who also gave to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Lauren Boebert just lost $500,000 in our race.” They want to buy this election. They will fail.”
Elfreth Maryland Matters said last month that she didn’t know the super PAC was interfering in the race. Still, the super PAC shows how pro-Israel groups are flexing their muscles ahead of crucial November elections.
A moderate Republican fends off a right-wing challenge
Bacon survived a primary attack from the right on Tuesday after defeating Frei in the GOP contest for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Frei was endorsed by House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Va.) and the Nebraska GOP, while Bacon received the support of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Bacon’s victory will come as a relief to House Republicans, given how volatile the state’s 2nd District is.
Bacon has held the seat for four terms so far, despite winning for Biden by more than 6 points in 2020.
Bacon is now preparing for a rematch against state Sen. Tony Vargas (D), whom he defeated by more than 2 points in 2022.
Manchin’s likely successor glides to victory
Gov. Jim Justice (R), who won Tuesday night’s Republican Senate primary, will almost certainly replace Manchin this fall given the state’s Republican lean.
That will already lead to a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate; If Trump wins the presidency in November, Republicans will flip the Senate on Justice’s victory alone.
The current governor will face Wheeling, W.Va., Mayor Glenn Elliott in November, who received the endorsement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and handily won Tuesday’s Democratic primary.
