Virginia last sent its electoral votes to a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, during George W. Bush’s re-election effort. In the 20 years since, the Old Dominion has favored Democrats for the presidency, although they don’t mind electing Republican governors like the current Glenn Youngkin.
As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average for Virginia is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump with an average of 5.8 points; But that margin is shrinking, Old Dominion could potentially be in play (RCP lists it as “Leans Harris”), and the surprising thing is the demographics Reduce the vice president’s leadWashington Secrets columnist Paul Bedard writes about a novel Washington Examiner poll:
A Virginia Tuesday’s victory could be within reach for the former president Donald Trumpaccording to novel polling data that shows he can win over a key group of voters.
A novel one Zygnal survey shared with Secrets said the Republican is winning among voters without college degrees, which is key to winning the commonwealth.
Additionally, Virginia voters who are cheerful with the direction under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin are infrequent.
But in the commonwealth, which hasn’t elected a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, vice president Kamala Harris also has some large advantages, like winning more college-educated voters than the president Joe Biden did in 2020. And, Cygnal said, she leads Trump by seven points overall, 50% to 43%.
Trump is visiting southern Virginia on Saturday, holding a rally in Salem, which is off I-81 near Blacksburg, home of Virginia Tech, and west of Roanoke.
Trump’s large, cacophonous, signature rallies are great for stoking enthusiasm among the base, and they certainly attract a lot of attention, but it’s unclear how many voters they might draw away from the other side. That’s not the compelling part here; The compelling thing about this is the population group that seems to be making the difference.
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The most essential demographic here? Younger voters.
When the dust settles on this election, we will see voters between the ages of 18 and 29 deviating from the norm. Harris will do significantly worse with this group than Biden and Clinton @morgonnm explains exactly why! https://t.co/694pgfTKix
— Mitchell Brown (@MitchStoneBrown) October 29, 2024
Younger voters generally lean Democratic, but that could be changing in Virginia, Bedard shared:
“Trump continues to gain ground among voters without a college degree, while Harris performs on par with Clinton and Biden’s numbers from 2016 and 2020,” said Mitch Brown, pollster and director of political strategy at Cygnal.
“Combining Trump’s gains and Harris’s flat lines with the fact that 55% of Virginia voters think the commonwealth is headed in the right direction and over 52% approve of Gov. Youngkin’s job means Republicans are few and far between have days ahead of them election day” he added.
This may not be as surprising as it first seems. Younger people ultimately have less disposable income; Their income must be higher than that of most of their older colleagues. And right now their paychecks are being eaten alive by the grocery bill, the electric bill, buying gas for the car, and trying to have a little fun every now and then. For most, buying a home is out of reach, and even rent is a problem. Our two younger daughters can only afford a decent townhouse to rent in a good neighborhood because our youngest lives with her sister and brother-in-law, so the bills are split not in two, but in three – and these kids are almost 30, with No hope of buying houses soon.
If these trends continue, it’s not at all unlikely that being a Republican and a conservative could be the hip, chilly “counterculture.” And that wouldn’t be the worst thing that ever happened in the United States; not by far.
