WASHINGTON (AP) — Colorado’s congressional delegation faces a reshuffle in Tuesday’s primary election after a resignation, a retirement and a move ensured that at least a third of the state’s population will face up-to-date representation in Washington next year.
Tuesday’s primaries will also lay the groundwork for the general election in November, in which two contested Colorado districts could support decide who has the majority in the narrowly divided U.S. House of Representatives.
In the 3rd Congressional District, two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert faced a tough rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, who would have been just 546 votes away from unseating the congresswoman in 2022. But when her Republican colleague Ken Buck decided not to run for a sixth term in the neighboring 4th Congressional District in 2023, Boebert instead decided to head east and run for Buck’s vacated seat, where Republicans have a larger electoral advantage.
She now faces a gigantic Republican field in the primary that includes state Reps. Mike Lynch and Richard Holtorf, conservative activist and talk show host Deborah Flora, Logan County Commissioner and former Senate President pro tempore Jerry Sonnenberg and bank executive Peter Yu. Running for the Democratic nomination are speechwriter Trisha Calvarese, Marine Corps veteran Ike McCorkle and engineer John Padora.
Buck resigned in March, triggering a special general election to fill the remaining six months of his term. The election appears to be running parallel to the regularly scheduled primary election for the full term.
Several of the candidates vying for the full-term seat also sought the Republican nomination to fill Buck’s vacancy, but a state Republican Party committee nominated former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, who is not running for a full term. He will face Democrat Calvarese and two third-party candidates.
Since her election in 2020, Boebert has become a polarizing figure due to her combative style and penchant for controversy. The past year has been particularly disordered for Boebert’s personal life, with a messy divorce, the arrest of her son in a series of break-ins and thefts, a health scare that required surgery for a blood clot, and her much-publicized ejection from a Denver theater for disturbing the peace.
Despite the controversy, Boebert has likely boosted her chances of re-election by moving to a district that former President Donald Trump won twice with nearly 60% of the vote. She is a fundraising leader and has the backing of Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson and the state party.
In Boebert’s former district, Frisch has no opponent for the Democratic nomination. He will face the winner of a crowded Republican primary field that includes former state Rep. Ron Hanks, the state party’s preferred candidate. Although Frisch nearly beat Boebert in 2022, the district still leans Republican. Voters there gave Trump 53% of the vote in 2016 and 2020.
Colorado’s toughest race for a U.S. House seat this fall will likely be in the 8th Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Yadira Caraveo is running unopposed in the Democratic primary in her first term. Her Republican opponent will be either state Rep. Gabe Evans or former state Rep. Janak Joshi. Evans is an Army veteran and former police officer, while Joshi is a retired doctor and enjoys the backing of the state party.
Caraveo won her seat in 2022 with just 48% of the vote in this up-to-date district near Denver, Boulder and Fort Collins. Trump received 46% of the vote in this area in the last two presidential elections, enough to beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 but about 4 percentage points less than Joe Biden in 2020.
In the 5th Congressional District, Republican U.S. Representative Doug Lamborn has announced his retirement after nine terms, creating an opportunity for a Republican-friendly seat in Colorado Springs. Political consultant and talk show host Jeff Crank and state party chairman Dave Williams are running for the Republican nomination. Williams is backed by Trump and the state party he leads.
Some Republicans, including Crank, have criticized Williams for using the state’s party apparatus to advance his own congressional ambitions. The Democratic nominee will be either River Gassen or Joe Reagan. Trump received 53% of the district’s vote in 2020 and 56% in 2016. Lamborn received 56% in his 2022 re-election bid.
Further down the ballot are competitive primaries for the state Senate and House of Representatives. About half of the 35 seats in the state Senate and all 65 seats in the state House of Representatives are up for election this year. Democrats hold a roughly 2-1 majority in both chambers.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
Colorado’s primary election will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET.
WHAT IS ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will report voting results and announce the winners of 35 elections, including six contested primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, seven for the state Senate, 18 for the state House of Representatives, two primaries for state boards of education, one for the University of Colorado Board of Trustees and a special general election for the 4th Congressional District.
WHO CAN VOTE
Registered party members may only vote in their own party’s primaries. In other words, Democrats may not vote in Republican primaries and vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in any party’s primaries.
DECISION NOTES
By running for a different seat, Boebert traded Colorado’s sprawling westernmost district for its sprawling easternmost district. In the 3rd District, the most influential districts in the election are Republican-friendly Mesa to the west, which includes Grand Junction, and Democratic-friendly Pueblo to the east. The candidate who wins both districts, as Boebert did in the 2020 primary when she unseated incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Tipton, would be complex to defeat.
In Boebert’s up-to-date 4th District, Douglas, located between Denver and Colorado Springs, is the crucial district to win. Douglas has by far the largest population in the district and accounted for more than half of the vote in Buck’s 2022 re-election bid. A candidate trailing in Douglas would need to win overwhelming majorities in the rest of the district to pull off a win. Douglas votes less Republican than the rest of the district, giving Trump about 52% of the vote in 2020, compared to about 60% to nearly 90% in other districts.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
Colorado allows automatic recounts in races where the vote margin is 0.5% or less of the front-runner’s total vote. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the margin is too gigantic for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
WHAT ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT AND PRE-SELECTION?
As of June 1, there were nearly 4.5 million registered voters in Colorado. Of these, 26% were Democrats, 23% were Republicans, and about half were unaffiliated or independent.
In the 2022 primary election, voter turnout was 12% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 15% in the Republican primary. Colorado conducts its elections predominantly by mail.
As of Tuesday, a total of 449,721 votes had already been cast, of which about 42% were in the Democratic primary and 41% in the Republican primary. A total of 75,516 votes had already been cast in the special election for the 4th Congressional District.
HOW LONG DOES THE COUNTING OF VOTES USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 9:04 p.m. ET, four minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 4:05 a.m. ET, after about 90% of all votes had been counted.
ARE WE ALREADY THERE?
As of Tuesday, there are 133 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.
