WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Rick Scott’s bid to be re-nominated for a second term in the Senate tops the list of races Florida voters will decide in Tuesday’s primary election.
Scott is considered the clear favorite over his challengers John Columbus, an actor and former cast member at Walt Disney World, and Keith Gross, a lawyer who twice ran for the Georgia House of Representatives as a Democrat but now supports Donald Trump.
Gross said in a 2023 interview that he was willing to spend $20 million to $30 million out of his own pocket to oust Scott from office. Federal campaign finance records show Gross loaned or donated $2.4 million to his campaign and had about $13,000 in the bank as of July 31. Scott had nearly $3.9 million in the bank and raised more than $30 million over the course of the campaign. Columbus lagged far behind both candidates in campaign finance.
In the Democratic primary, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is leading a field of four candidates in fundraising. Powell’s main opponent was Phil Ehr, a retired Marine commander, but he withdrew from the race in October. Ehr is now running for the House seat that Mucarsel-Powell lost to Republican Carlos Gimenez in 2020.
Mucarsel-Powell has raised $14.4 million and had $4.4 million in the bank at the start of the month, far ahead of all of her remaining opponents in the primaries.
Democrats face a daunting challenge in the Senate elections in a year when they must defend vulnerable seats across the country.
If Trump wins the White House, Republicans would need to gain just one seat to regain control of the chamber. They would almost certainly win in West Virginia, where Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is retiring. The Florida race is one of Democrats’ only chances to go on the offensive against a Republican incumbent.
In addition to looking beyond the primaries to his likely contest with Mucarsel-Powell, Scott is also planning a recent role in the next Senate. In May, he said he would run for Senate Republican leader to replace retiring Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Florida voters will also decide on 30 contested primaries for the House of Representatives.
In the 8th Congressional District, east of Orlando, three Republicans and two Democrats are running to succeed Republican Bill Posey, who is retiring after eight terms in office. Former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos is the Republican camp’s best-known and best-funded candidate. He is running against Joe Babits, a lawyer and former Securities and Exchange Commission official, and John Hearton, a former technology company executive.
The Democratic candidate will be either lawyer Sandy Kennedy or Daniel McDown, a member of the West Melbourne City Council. Trump won the heavily Republican district twice with 58% of the vote.
Across the state, the ongoing battle between former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Republican congressman who engineered his ouster, Matt Gaetz, continues. Gaetz is seeking a fifth term in the 1st Congressional District in the western Panhandle and faces a challenge from former Navy pilot Aaron Dimmock, who is backed by McCarthy’s political action committee.
Democrats and Republicans will each hold five contested primaries for the Senate. Thirty-five primaries for the state’s House of Representatives are contested. Half of the 40 seats in the Florida State Senate and all 120 seats in the state’s House of Representatives are up for election. Republicans have majorities of more than 2:1 in both chambers.
A look at what awaits us on Tuesday:
Primary school day
The last polls close at 8:00 p.m. EDT, but in most parts of the state polls close as early as 7:00 p.m. EDT.
What is on the ballot
The Associated Press will announce voting results and announce the winners of the contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, State Senate, State House of Representatives and several prosecutor and public defender positions.
Who can vote
Only voters registered with a political party may vote in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary and vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not vote in any of the primaries.
Decision notes
Florida, once the most essential swing state in national elections, has moved to the right since the 2000 presidential election. For at least 50 years, starting in the early 1970s, Florida had more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. After the 2020 election, Republicans overtook Democrats in registration, and that lead grew to about 1 million voters by August.
Although Democrat Joe Biden won 48% of the vote in Florida in 2020, his then-campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said in a podcast interview in June that Florida was not a swing state, despite an April campaign memo talking about an “opening in Florida.” She is now supporting Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.
Key regions in the statewide election are the Gold Coast counties of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, as well as the counties along the so-called I-4 corridor, including Hillsborough and Orange County, where Tampa and Orlando are located, respectively.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
In Florida, machine recounts are conducted automatically when the vote difference is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount shows a vote difference of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of over- and under-votes is required. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines that the margin is too enormous for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
What about voter turnout and early voting?
On Wednesday, there were about 13.6 million registered voters in Florida. Of these, 32 percent were Democrats, 39 percent Republicans and 26 percent independents who did not belong to any party.
In the 2022 midterm elections, turnout in the Democratic primary was about 11% of registered voters. About 72% of the votes in that election were cast before primary day. Republicans did not have a statewide primary this year.
As of Friday, more than 1.6 million votes had been cast before Primary Day, with about 40% in the Democratic primary and 47% in the Republican primary. About three-quarters of the votes cast before Primary Day were by mail, with the rest cast in person. Slightly more Democrats than Republicans cast their votes by mail, while Republicans cast about two-thirds of their votes in person. Early voting began on August 10 and ends Saturday.
How long does the vote count usually take?
In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:01 p.m. EDT, one minute after the first polls closed. Election night counting ended at 1:14 a.m. ET, after about 99.9% of all votes had been counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there are 77 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
