WASHINGTON (AP) — After a tough summer of primary elections, the progressive House Democrats who call themselves “The Squad” face their final challenge next week in Minnesota.
Rep. Ilhan Omar is on the ballot in Minnesota’s 5th congressional district on Tuesday, a week after her Squad colleague Cori Bush lost the Democratic nomination in Missouri. In June, Jamaal Bowman of New York, also part of the Squad, became the first Democratic representative of the election cycle to lose his primary. The only other Squad member who has not yet faced a primary is Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, and no one is running against her.
Omar is in a stronger position than Bowman or Bush, both of whom had well-funded challengers and millions in spending from the United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The United Democracy Project has not run ads against Omar in this race. More importantly, Omar is better prepared on the eve of her 2024 primary than she was for her 2022 primary, when she narrowly defeated Don Samuels, who is again her main challenger.
Omar has significantly improved her fundraising over the past two years. In her pre-primary financial report this year, Omar reported spending $2.3 million on the election cycle. In her pre-primary financial report this year, she reported raising more than double that amount, about $6.2 million. Samuels has raised about $1.4 million.
In the general election, Democratic Representative Angie Craig represents the most contested seat in the Minnesota House of Representatives in the 2nd Congressional District. She nominally faces an opponent in Tuesday’s primary.
On the Republican side, former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab is backed by former President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson. His only opponent in Tuesday’s primary, defense attorney Tayler Rahm, announced in July that he was dropping out of the race, but he will still run for election.
Rahm won the endorsement of the 2nd District Republican Party but trailed Teirab in fundraising. Rahm said he would instead serve as a senior adviser to Trump’s Minnesota campaign.
In the 7th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach is running against Steve Boyd, an underfunded challenger in the primary. Boyd reported spending $170,000 on the campaign, while Fischbach spent over $1 million. Neither candidate was able to gain enough support at the district convention to win the state party’s endorsement, but Fischbach has Trump’s backing.
In the race for the Senate seat, Democratic incumbent Amy Klobuchar has a good chance of winning her party’s nomination. She faces four challengers, but none have raised campaign funds, according to the Federal Elections Commission. Klobuchar has raised about $19 million.
Eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. The biggest fundraiser is Royce White, a former NBA player who is a mental health advocate and has since become an ally of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones and former Trump adviser Steve Bannon. White shocked many political observers when he defeated Navy veteran Joe Fraser at the convention. Neither candidate has raised significant funds. White last reported raising $133,000, while Fraser has raised $68,000. No Republican group has reserved television ads for the Senate campaign, according to AdImpact.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday.
Primary school day
The Minnesota primary election will take place on Tuesday, with polls closing at 9 p.m. ET.
What is on the ballot
The Associated Press will announce voting results and declare the winners of 35 elections, including the Republican and Democratic primaries for the U.S. Senate. Minnesota will also have primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, the state House of Representatives and a special election for the state Senate.
Who can vote
Minnesota has open primaries, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party’s primary. There is no registration for political parties in the state.
Decision notes
The 2nd Congressional District includes the Twin Cities suburbs and rural areas further south. The district’s most populous area is in Dakota County, which leans Democratic.
The 7th Congressional District stretches along the western border and is mostly rural. Boyd lives in Kensington in rural Douglas County.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
A candidate may request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.25 percentage points in federal elections and less than 0.5 percentage points in state legislative elections. In elections where fewer than 400 votes are cast, a recount may also be requested if the margin is less than 10 votes.
If the margin does not meet the criteria for requesting a publicly funded recount, the losing candidate may request a recount at his or her own discretion and provide the necessary funds to do so.
What about voter turnout and early voting?
As of July 1, nearly 3.6 million voters were registered in Minnesota.
In the 2024 presidential primary, 18% of the vote was cast before Election Day. Turnout among 3,574,718 primary voters was 7% in the Democratic primary and 9% in the Republican primary.
In 2022, mail-in ballots accounted for 20% of all votes. Voter turnout in the 7th District Republican primary was 14% of 427,502 registered voters. In the 5th District Democratic primary this year, voter turnout was 28% of 408,888 registered voters. In the 2022 primary
As of August 1, a total of 60,851 votes had been cast before the primary election.
How long does the vote count usually take?
In the presidential primary earlier this year, AP first reported results at 9:09 p.m. ET, nine minutes after polls closed. Counting ended at 2:38 a.m. ET on election night, after more than 99 percent of the votes had been counted.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
