The Republicans’ ability to win a key Senate seat in Ohio is becoming increasingly likely given how little the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is spending – or not spending – to support Sherrod Brown keep his seat.
Let’s look at how things seem to break.
The current situation in Ohio
A current Neapolitan news Opinion poll of Ohio voters are very positive about both Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno and Donald Trump. Moreno appears to have taken the lead in the race, receiving 48 percent support compared to incumbent Brown’s 46 percent. The RealClearPolitics Average still shows Brown in the lead, but their totals are based on older poll data.
📊 OHIO POLL: @RMG_Research
senate
🟥 Bernie Moreno: 48%
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46%
—
president
🟥 Donald Trump: 54%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%
—
#60 (2.3/3.0) | 757 LV | September 18th – 20th | ±3.5%https://t.co/WaZP2qhGyr pic.twitter.com/cEAqXkuh99— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) 25 September 2024
The results are also very good for Trump, who has a comfortable 11-point lead over Kamala Harris, which is largely in line with the RCP. AverageA PAC supporting Kamala has a Advertisement Attacks on Trump that are likely an attempt to narrow Trump’s lead in the Buckeye State by playing up the cats and dogs story.
The money
When it comes to winning or keeping Senate seats for the Democrats, it’s up to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to spend money… a lot. Especially in races where an incumbent is running, as is the case with Sherrod Brown and Ohio. There’s just one thing: The DSCC doesn’t seem to be spending anything at all in Ohio. Zero. Nada. And it’s not like they don’t have the Money.
Groups supporting Republican Bernie Moreno, #OHSen The groups running for the title are currently spending more money than the groups supporting Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown ($89.9 million to $22.5 million). https://t.co/oRr8kThn9g pic.twitter.com/pQrkce5fup
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) 24 September 2024
If you look closely at the chart, you can see that the DSCC is spending a lot of money to keep Brown’s seat. One place where the committee is spending money, however, is Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is now favored to beat Democratic incumbent Jon Tester.
When it comes to advertising spending in the contested Senate, Republican advertisers continue to have an advantage in reserving advertising revenue in #OHSen And #PASbut the Democrats retain their advantages in #AZSen, #WHISPER, #MTSen, #NVSenAnd #WISen. pic.twitter.com/8WAnwcfomA
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) 25 September 2024
Bottom line: Democrats appear to be shifting their resources from the Ohio race to the Montana race.
The players in Ohio
We already know that the DSCC doesn’t spend much money in Ohio, but what about the Republican equivalent, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (RSCC)? They appear to be spending only miniature amounts on Moreno. That means both parties are relying on the associated PACs to fill the gap, a challenge that Mitch McConnell and his Senate Leadership Fund have taken on. Mitch has clearly made his Sights set that the Republicans will gain some seats and thus regain the majority, and Moreno benefits from his generosity.
On the Democratic side, the Senate Majority PAC (SMP) has pumped nearly $20 million into the Senate race in Ohio. That is only a third of what they said they would spend to support Brown. It looks like SMP is holding back some of the money from Ohio for places like Montana and Pennsylvania, where Republican Dave McCormick is making life complex for Democratic incumbent Bob Casey.
Next Steps
The Democrats appear to be running out of moves on the Senate chessboard. With less than six weeks to go before Election Day, they appear to be essentially giving up on Sherrod Brown, and Jon Tester may soon suffer the same fate. Where do they go next? Apparently, they want to widen the playing field to Florida and Texas in the hope of beating Republicans Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.
The numbers aren’t in Democrats’ favor right now. They’re going to lose Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, they seem to be giving up Ohio, and Montana could be heated on their heels. If they attack Scott and Cruz, they’re counting on Trump’s support in those states to dwindle. Democrats seem pretty protected this Senate election cycle, which won’t make Chuck Schumer very elated. Conservatives should be elated, though, because a Republican majority in the Senate is a good thing whether Trump wins the presidency or not.
