Republicans have at least 52 seats Majority in the Senate and plan to expand to 54 as GOP candidates lead vote counts in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Such a cushion would strengthen the position of President-elect Trump fills a cabinet and other positions in the executive and judicial branches.
A narrower GOP majority in the Senate would have put a lot of power in the hands of Republican moderates who didn’t support Trump, namely Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine), but with 52-54 seats under GOP control. Trump will be able to largely bypass these centrists to push his agenda through Congress.
A gigantic question, however, is whether Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives. A Democratic-controlled House would be a major obstacle to Trump’s legislative agenda, but the early results are promising for House Republicans.
Trump allies on Capitol Hill are already discussing the early confirmation of controversial nominees to Trump’s recent Cabinet, such as Richard Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence, to head the State Department and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a senior position at the Department of Health and Human Services and social services.
Kennedy caused a stir again on Wednesday when he told MSNBC in an interview that “entire departments, like the FDA’s nutrition division…have to go.”
Senate Democrats acknowledged Wednesday that they will not have much influence in stopping Trump’s most polarizing nominees for the executive or judicial branches next year, given the expected size of the incoming GOP majority.
“We’re very concerned about it,” Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.) said of Trump’s largely unhindered ability to make appointments next year.
“With a significant number of senators … we have to be very concerned about the state of the judiciary if they have four more years to fill the courts and possibly the Supreme Court,” he added.
The two oldest members of the Supreme Court who may be next to retire are conservative Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74, who were the driving forces behind the court’s 2022 decision to uphold the law to repeal abortion.
In addition, Republican lawmakers are pushing for robust legislation to secure the U.S.-Mexico border, an issue that Trump has made a key campaign issue, as well as proposals to “disarm” the federal government and crack down on career federal employees who Trump has generally referred to as members of the “deep state.”
“If we hold the House of Representatives, we will move forward with budget reconciliation – the best way to stimulate the economy and help secure the border,” posted Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally, on the social platform X .
A Senate Republican aide said GOP leaders could operate two separate budget reconciliation bills next year to bypass a Senate Democratic filibuster that would otherwise require 60 votes.
“You could create two reconciliation bills. One that looks at expanding tax cuts,” the adviser said of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires at the end of next year.
“You could potentially use the other one for the other issues the president has talked about: disarming the government, civil service reform, border funding,” the source added. “Reconciliation is where the most aggressive laws are passed.”
Republicans would be able to push Trump’s agenda through the Senate with a uncomplicated majority vote, as long as the parliamentarian decides they have a material, rather than tangential, impact on federal spending, revenue or the deficit.
Republicans are also beginning to think more seriously about repealing gigantic portions of President Biden’s signature legislative achievement, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Trump has already proposed raising $900 billion in revenue by repealing Biden-era neat energy tax breaks.
They also want to withdraw the rest of the $80 billion that Congress gave the IRS to improve the tax compliance of the nation’s wealthiest individuals and families. That direct spending was included in Biden’s IRA, although about $20 billion of it was later redirected to other programs as part of a deal to raise the debt limit in 2023.
GOP lawmakers are also talking about legislation that would open wide swaths of federal lands to oil and gas drilling and the extraction of key minerals needed for semiconductors and other advanced technologies.
“53 is a working majority,” said a Senate Republican strategist, referring to the widespread view among Senate Republicans that they need to control 53 seats to overcome any obstacles that Murkowski and Collins, two professed ones, face Trump critics could push back against his agenda.
Both senators joined the delayed Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) in blocking Trump’s efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act during his first term. Now, years later, many Republicans privately admit that the trio of moderates probably saved their party a major political headache by keeping ObamaCare in place.
Collins said she would nominate former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley for president, while Murkowski said last month she would not vote for either Trump or Vice President Harris.
There are other Trump skeptics in the GOP Senate conference who could put the brakes on more controversial aspects of Trump’s agenda, such as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who was one of seven Republican senators who voted to impeach Trump on sedition charges condemn insurrection in 2021, or Senator-elect John Curtis (R-Utah), who will fill the seat of outgoing Senator Mitt Romney (R).
Curtis called for Trump’s censure after the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
At least Republicans will have a 52-seat majority in the Senate next year. But they are sanguine that Republican David McCormick will defeat Sen. Bob Casey (D) once officials count the votes in Pennsylvania, which would augment the seats to 53.
“Pennsylvania is probably R,” the Senate GOP strategist said.
Mark Davin Harris, an adviser to McCormick’s campaign, said on
“Philadelphia has now exhausted almost all of its ballots. The majority of remaining ballots are Election Day in Cambria County. We believe this batch will be net [McCormick] at least 20,000 votes. “Now that Philly is almost done, the race is over,” he said wrote in a post.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) told reporters Wednesday that GOP leaders are “confident” their projected 52-seat majority will “grow” once all votes are counted.
“We certainly already know that we will be in the majority. We are confident that this will actually grow something,” he said.
Asked whether the GOP agenda would become more ambitious with a 53- or 54-seat majority, McConnell warned that Republicans would still be constrained by the need to get 60 votes to pass most legislation unless they operate a special procedure called budget reconciliation.
“We’re hearing optimistic reports about what could happen in the House,” he said of the possibility that Republicans will retain control of the House. “If we can legally circumvent the filibuster, it will be through reconciliation.”
Senate Republicans believe they can still defeat Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in Nevada, where she trails Republican Sam Brown by nearly 4,000 votes.
Brown is ahead there with 47.5 to 47.2 percent, with 93 percent of the votes in favor.
If Rosen were defeated, Republicans would have a 54-seat Senate majority in January.
