The 2024 presidential election remains one of the closest in history, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running neck-and-neck nationally and in swing states. Who has the advantage in the final weeks of the race? New county-level polls in Pennsylvania suggest it’s the former president.
According to a survey conducted and sponsored by Cygnal The Daily WireTrump leads in the key districts of Erie and Northampton. These were won by the overall winner of the 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 elections, making them crucial battlegrounds in what is already the most significant swing state.
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Both Erie and Northampton counties have voted on the winning side in every election since 2008 – siding with President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania is considered one of the most battleground states in the 2024 election, with most polls showing a statistical tie between Trump and Harris.
In swing districts, Trump is ahead by just one percent, 49 to 48 Zygnal survey.
“Unlike 2020, Pennsylvania’s ‘Bellwether Counties’ narrowly returned to Donald Trump,” the pollster wrote, concluding that the former president is winning over customary Democratic voters who think Harris is too radical. “With Democrats holding a 4-point lead in party registration in these counties, this is further evidence that these heritage Democrats are increasingly leaving their ancestral party.”
I have already stated the case, but I will repeat it again. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly win the election. Yes, analysts can play the card and replace this state with the other, but if a candidate doesn’t win The Keystone State, they’ll likely lose Michigan and Wisconsin too. That’s why the Trump campaign and surrounding PACs have spent far more in Pennsylvania than in any other state.
The fact that Trump is ahead in these districts, albeit by a narrow margin, less than four weeks before Election Day is a very good sign for him. There was some thought in early August that Harris would retire, creating an environment more akin to 2020, with Biden consistently leading Trump nationally and in swing states, sometimes by significant margins. Instead, the race has gone the other way: Trump has retaken the lead in several polling states and kept it extremely narrow nationally, where Republicans enjoy an advantage in the Electoral College.
That’s pretty remarkable when you think about it. Trump was criminally convicted in New York by a partisan prosecutor who presented a never-before-tested legal theory to one of the most biased judges in the country. He was almost murdered once and escaped a second assassination attempt a month later. He faces a federal indictment in which the special prosecutor fought to release the “evidence” for political reasons shortly before the election. Still, he is in such a close race that one can only conclude that he has the advantage.
Conventional wisdom says Trump will win if he’s only a point or two behind nationally. He doesn’t even need the same major polling errors at this point that we saw in 2016 and 2020. With this on the table, could anything even happen at this point that could shift the race from its current state? I have a difficult time imagining it. Trump is the most celebrated commodity on the planet, and the more people learn about Harris, the less they like her. One thing is certain. This will be an invigorating election evening.
