Decision Desk Headquarters called Virginia Vice President Kamala Harris.
While Virginia’s thirteen electoral votes are a nice haul for the winning candidate, the commonwealth’s propensity to vote Democratic in federal elections has made it less competitive for Republicans. However, there have been some recent signs that Donald Trump is doing better there than anyone expected.
First, there was the Department of Justice (DOJ) lawsuit against Glenn Youngkin for excluding non-citizens from the state’s voting system, required by a law enacted by then-Governor and Democrat Tim Kaine. Curiously, the lawsuit, filed in October, came just as the needle seemed to be moving toward Republicans. The United States Supreme Court issued an emergency stay on the matter, allowing non-citizens to be removed from the voter rolls.
Next, early voting numbers showed that the number of Republican-allied voters was greater than ever before. A few weeks ago, Democrats only had an 11-point lead, whereas they traditionally had a lead of about 30 points in early voting counts. This trend toward the GOP continued through Election Day.
Then poll showed Kamala Harris has a much smaller lead than expected. According to Democratic advocacy group Chism Strategies:
Virginia has the most surprising result of the three states we examined. Although there have been few statewide polls, the ones we’ve seen have largely shown Harris close to Biden’s 2020 numbers and that Tim Kaine is well ahead of Harris.
However, our poll shows a different picture: Harris was up 0.7% (45.2% – 44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine was not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4% – 44th). .9%).
Finally, Donald Trump appeared on Saturday for an election campaign rally in Salem, Virginia. Trump’s team clearly saw enough reason for optimism in Virginia to justify a stop in the crucial final days of the campaign.
State of play: Joe Biden won Virginia by +10 points in 2020. If the poll is correct, and that’s a gigantic if, Virginia won’t be as blue this time as it has been in previous presidential elections. A Trump victory would have been a devastating blow to Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the presidency, but even a good Trump showing in Virginia could spell gigantic trouble for Harris in other states.
With 47 percent of votes counted as of this writing, Harris leads Trump 49.3 percent to 49 percent, and the race is called for Harris.
