The nation’s capital is once again gearing up for a familiar battle: the federal budget. After a tumultuous election season, Congress is turning its attention to the contentious process of funding the federal government – a fight that is exposing some divisions within the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and setting the stage for a showdown with the Democratic-led Senate and the White House .
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) caused a stir this week by supporting a short-term continuation resolution (CR) that would maintain funding for the federal government through early 2025. Speaking on “Fox News Sunday,” Johnson argued that his three-month CR would give Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump greater influence over fiscal 2025 spending decisions.
This approach mirrors the 2017 budget strategy, which allowed Trump to exercise significant control over budget proposals shortly after taking office.
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But Johnson said his approach would benefit the president-elect Donald Trump and Hill Republicans have a greater say in fiscal year 2025 spending bills.
For Trump, This could turn into a repeat of 2017. Hill Republicans were hesitant about a spending deal at the time, and budget proposals weren’t finalized until May. The delay could also impact Trump’s “100-day agenda.” Although that is already at risk on the hill.
Johnson, However, wants to avoid the messy dispute over spending bills with his conservative flank at the end of December. Especially as he faces a vote on his role as speaker on the opening day of the 119th Congress, a vote in which the Louisiana Republican will need Trump’s lend a hand anyway.
Johnson’s plan is far from the consensus on Capitol Hill. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and GOP contenders in both chambers are pushing a series of “minibuses” — smaller, targeted spending packages — that would fund the government through September 2025. Their approach, favored by fiscal conservatives, is to curb government spending and set conservative priorities in the budget process.
Strategic Calculations in a Divided Government
Johnson’s preference for a CR isn’t just about delaying the inevitable. It’s a tactical move aimed at sidestepping a tumultuous December election campaign with the right flank of the GOP, a group known for demanding deep spending cuts and threatening government shutdowns to enforce them. Johnson faces another challenge: the opening day vote to retain his speakership in the 119th Congress.
Securing Trump’s support for this vote will be critical, and aligning it with Trump’s broader budget strategy agenda could lend a hand solidify that support. Johnson is largely in a forceful position on this front. He led a narrow majority in the House of Representatives through the back half of the Biden administration and worked feverishly to maintain and expand his majority – the latter now seems likely. His ability to lead the House GOP and raise funds to push swing district Republicans through close races make him a good choice for leader.
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But fiscal conservatives were unenthusiastic about Johnson’s lack of energy to push for further cuts. On the other hand, Scalise’s strategy appeals to Republicans who want to reassert the party’s fiscal discipline and avoid the appearance of jeopardizing the issue. However, the reality of a Democratic-controlled Senate and White House complicates this approach. Any budget agreement requires bipartisan cooperation, and President Joe Biden has already signaled that he will not sign legislation that undermines key Democratic priorities.
The Trump factor
The 2024 election placed Donald Trump back at the center of Washington’s political energetic. Johnson’s approach allows the president-elect to have an early say in shaping the federal budget – a scenario reminiscent of Trump’s first term, when Republicans delayed appropriations until May 2017. While the delay could hamper progress on Trump’s ambitious “100-day agenda,” it is also a problem that allows his administration to influence spending bills that align with his priorities.
For conservatives, this strategy carries risks. A delayed budget could weaken the GOP’s credibility as a fiscally responsible party and place key decisions in the hands of Democrats unless Republicans act decisively. But it could also force Democrats to negotiate from a weaker position as the fiscal year winds down.
A familiar, high-stakes battle
As Washington prepares for another round of risk-taking fiscal policy, everything is at stake. The internal GOP debate over Johnson and Scalise’s approaches reflects deeper questions about the party’s direction in divided government. Will Republicans prioritize immediate fiscal conservatism, or will they play the long game to strengthen Trump’s position?
One thing is certain: the budget battle is far from over. With the 2024 election in the rearview mirror, it’s back to business as usual in Washington and the American people can expect more political fireworks in the coming months.
