NEW YORK (AP) — For Monday afternoon; WX507-508
___
Rarely, if ever, has one candidate in a presidential debate had so much material to employ against the other.
Republican Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of sedate crimes, with three more pending sedate charges. As president, Trump nominated three of the justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, undermining abortion access in America and sparking backlash even in conservative-led states. And his sweeping second-term plans include promises of retribution against political enemies in both parties.
But the gigantic question for President Joe Biden – legitimate or not – is whether he is physically and mentally capable of defending Trump at age 81. Perhaps nothing is more important than the level of energy and strength the Democratic incumbent exudes on stage.
Both men have glaring weaknesses that present enormous opportunities – and risks – for their opponent. They will be in front of a huge national audience, including many who will tune in for the first time for their 2020 rematch and won’t see another debate until September, making any success or failure seem even bigger.
Biden and Trump will face off for 90 minutes at 9 p.m. Thursday in a CNN studio in Atlanta.
Here are some key questions we will be monitoring:
Can Biden deliver?
Biden’s seemingly low bar for success is due at least in part to the 78-year-old Trump and his Republican allies, who have tirelessly mocked the Democratic president for years for obvious age-related missteps. Trump’s allies wonder if Biden can even stay awake and stand for the full 90 minutes.
Democrats hope Biden can muster the same energy he did in his State of the Union address earlier this year, but a live televised confrontation with an opponent who delights in verbal sparring is a very different story from a scripted speech to Congress.
Biden’s team knows he cannot afford to have a bad night in front of the nation.
Can Trump be lifeless?
With Trump already secured his base, he has an opportunity with the easily persuaded swing voters and moderates who helped secure Biden’s victory four years ago and are now voicing concerns about both candidates.
But to win over the so-called “double haters,” Trump cannot limit himself to the hard-hitting arguments, personal insults and conspiracy theories that usually dominate his public appearances. Instead of continuing to talk about retaliation or spreading lies about the U.S. electoral system, he must present an bullish vision for the future and clearly differentiate himself from Biden on time-honored budget issues such as health care and education.
He was widely criticized for his outbursts in the first debate with Biden in 2020, when he pressed the then-Democratic nominee and repeatedly interrupted him. Their second debate was milder in tone and focused on their starkly different visions of governing.
In miniature, Trump must be somewhat lifeless on Thursday night. Can he remain disciplined? Some allies are bullish. But history may suggest otherwise.
Navigating the criminal record
Trump’s extraordinary legal baggage creates opportunities and risks for both candidates on the stage.
Biden’s campaign has signaled an increasing willingness to consider Trump’s criminal record in recent days. But aside from a few jabs, Biden himself has largely distanced himself from Trump’s prosecution to avoid the appearance of political interference.
Trump has claimed for years that Biden is responsible for his prosecution without any evidence, and will not make it uncomplicated for the president to toe that line.
Recent polls show that about half of American adults approve of Trump’s conviction in New York. And if voters don’t find the specific convictions problematic, Trump’s attempt to cover up an alleged affair with a porn actress is hardly a bumper sticker.
Biden, meanwhile, is aware that Trump could potentially attack his son Hunter, as the then-president did on the debate stage four years ago. Hunter Biden was recently convicted on three counts related to purchasing a gun while allegedly addicted to drugs. Trump has also raised questions about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings when his father was vice president.
Muted microphones and moderators
As is often the case, the moderators and ground rules are likely to influence the outcome of the debate. And the ground rules for this debate, the first of two scheduled sessions, are unusual.
What is notable is that the candidates are bypassing the time-honored structure established by the Commission on Presidential Debates and relying instead on a mutually agreed set of rules and conditions.
Biden and Trump will debate in a CNN studio in Atlanta without an audience. There will be no opening remarks. Candidates’ microphones will be muted except when it is their turn to speak. No props or pre-written notes will be allowed on stage. Candidates will only be given a pen, notepad and bottle of water.
By coin toss, it was decided that Trump would deliver the closing argument.
The event will be moderated by CNN’s Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, two respected anchors who are not afraid to denounce Trump’s lies and conspiracy theories.
While Bash and Tapper have at times been critical of Biden, Biden’s camp no doubt hopes they will play an lively role in pushing back on Trump’s potential falsehoods in real time. For example, while Biden’s microphone is muted when Trump speaks, the moderators’ microphones are not muted.
Abortion versus immigration
Although debates sometimes depend more on style than substance, both candidates face sedate policy challenges that they must overcome.
For Trump, no issue is as important as abortion. His appointments to the Supreme Court during his tenure enabled the court to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which sparked an avalanche of abortion restrictions across the country. Trump has repeatedly said he is proud of his role in overturning Roe. And Biden will be joyful to highlight Trump’s role.
Trump has, of course, said he would not support a national ban on abortion if re-elected. But given his record on Roe, he may have more work to do if he wants to convince women he can be trusted on a key health issue.
Biden’s biggest political burden, meanwhile, is likely to be immigration. The Democratic administration is struggling to limit the number of immigrants entering the country across the US-Mexico border. His allies privately admit that the issue is a major political liability heading into the fall.
Trump’s favorite topic is illegal immigration, so it’s unthreatening to assume he will strongly attack Biden on this issue.
At the same time, Biden will face tough questions about his leadership in the war between Israel and Hamas. The president’s staunch support – and occasional criticism – of Israel has alienated some potential supporters on both sides.
On Thursday evening he will have the opportunity to defend his position on this complicated issue. It will not be uncomplicated.
