Despite all the “vibes” and expressions of joy, Kamala Harris’ campaign is not going quite as well as her advisers and the press would have us believe. A novel report by CNN sheds lightweight on the current state of the race and raises doubts about Harris’ outward confidence.
Jen O’Malley Dillion, Harris’ campaign manager, revealed internal information at a leadership meeting. It paints a picture of uncertainty, as the vice president has “no sure path to 270 electoral votes.”
At a leadership retreat for top advisers in Wilmington last week, Jen O’Malley Dillon – the campaign manager hired by Joe Biden and appointed by Kamala Harris – went through the swing states and warned them: The vice president still has no sure Path to 270 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania doesn’t look good according to internal numbers ahead of the debate, but it’s certainly possible. North Carolina, which has disappointed Democrats in every election over the past 15 years, is looking better this time than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, but depending on the poll, it can be very complex to calculate the results accurately. Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be the best candidates for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.
I have long interpreted the campaign as meaning that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency. Are there technically other ways for either candidate to reach the 270-point mark? Sure, but the odds of Harris losing Pennsylvania but winning, say, Georgia are not high. Likewise, Trump is very unlikely to win Michigan if he can’t win Pennsylvania. The fact that Harris is doing “badly” in this all-important state is large news for Republicans.
RELATED TOPICS: CNN freaks out over Kamala Harris after key swing state switches to Trump
Going down the list, North Carolina is a state that always seems to be close but ends up in the GOP column. Arizona and Georgia are trending toward Trump and have been all election cycle. Michigan, on the other hand, is a state that has been trending more and more Democratic over the last two elections and regardless of the polls, Harris is favored there.
Keep in mind that all of the data above is from before the debate, so do Harris’ advisers believe the rules of the game have now changed? According to CNN, the answer is no, and what’s even more notable: several advisers believe Trump would win if the election were held today.
As thrilled as Harris’ aides are about her performance at the debate earlier this week, they don’t believe it has changed anything.
That leaves many possible paths to victory based on current and projected internal data, O’Malley Dillon said last week. However, several top advisers to Harris’ campaign told CNN they fear Trump would have a good chance of winning even if the election were held next Tuesday instead of over eight Tuesdays.
This news suggests that Trump’s decision to scoff at more debates is the right one. If the rules of the game haven’t changed, why give Harris another chance to change them? The former president’s best strategy is to forget about the knockout punch. That won’t happen because the country is just too divided. This is now an election based on turnout, and that should be the focus.
