I have to tell you that 2024 is going to be a rollercoaster politically nationally and even in the fairly blue state of Michigan. Before the rabid Michigan folks crawl out of their holes and complain that Michigan is a RED state, I just want to remind you of a few things.
It is not the districts that vote, but the people.
Data suggests we’re a Democratic state that trended purple for a glorious moment in 2016 when Donald Trump won by 11,000 votes. Here’s the proof.
Michigan is a BLUE state and lies about it will not change that fact
From this article…
So let me start with some basic facts to make sure we are all on the same page.
Michigan has elected progressive candidates since the election of Jennifer Granholm in 2002 and her re-election in 2006. The hiccup of “Republican” Rick Snyder, who Steerlet the flint water debacle happened, and was pro abortion, was a Democrat lithe. With Whitmer’s election in 2018 and her recent re-election in 2022, this trend is now continuing with the state’s head of government.
Michigan has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator since 1994. Spencer Abrahamwho was defeated by now-retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. In case you’re wondering how long that is, because of your time in the state’s struggling public school system, in 2024 it will be a full 30 years since you sent a member of the GOP to DC to take a seat in the upper chamber of Congress.
Please do not apply the excuse that Republicans chose established stooges to run against helpless Democrats like Stabenow and Peters. They had newly elected (barely) for a seat in the House of Representatives, John James, ran against both senators two years apart and lost. In fact, James only won his seat last November with just under 2,000 Voices.
Republicans in Michigan just lost both the House and the Senate control for the first time since John Engler left office. The only glowing spot for Republicans was control of the legislature, and now that redistricting is no longer in the hands of the legislature but is being turned over to a group of citizens chosen through a strange process, you can bet Republicans won’t be getting a favorable district any time soon.
These are all just facts that are verifiable. We can debate the reasons why this happened and the overall causes and effects, but what I just wrote above is a factual story.
My friends, how can Michigan be a red state when we haven’t elected a conservative Republican since John Engler in 1998 and a U.S. Senator since Spencer Abraham in 1994? Republicans have lost legislative control of both chambers for the first time in over 30 years, and while only one seat is at stake in each chamber, the redistricting done after the 2020 census doesn’t look promising for the next 10 years.
Some might now say: “Donald Trump won here in 2016 and became president.” Trump has won in this election in Michigan with just under 11,000 votes out of a total of over 4.5 million. Only four years later Trump lost Michigan has a 154,000-vote lead, making Michigan a blue state again in the presidential election after a very slight touch of purple for a second in 2016.
I know that’s a lot, but if you want Trump to win here and you have a chance to elect a U.S. Senator with an “R” after his name for the first time in 30 years, it’s time for us to be truthful about the past.
I am glad that it Michigan looks hopeful.
Ahead of this fall’s election, the Senate Republicans’ political arm is reserving nearly $10 million in TV and online advertising in Michigan, where it is supporting former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of Brighton in his Senate run, according to a Republican source familiar with the total.
The sum is part of the first round of independent spending by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which on Thursday began placing reservations in four states: Michigan, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona. The ads would run in August, the source said. The move is another sign that Republicans nationally are sedate about investing in Michigan’s Senate race this fall, even though the state is not considered a front-runner. Earlier this month, the NRSC announced it was spending a seven-figure sum on a Field program in the state to knock on doors.
This is better news than I was hoping for when I looked at the situation six months ago. Usually, the money promised to candidates for statewide office in Michigan doesn’t come through and the Republican candidate ends up losing by five to seven percentage points. The fact that they are already reserving $10 million worth of ads for the fall is promising, as that is more than we usually get in the Great Lake State.
There are also a number of mighty candidates on the Republican side, which is also unusual for this state, and I am cheerful about that too.
I prefer that to the alternative any time.
