EAU CLAIRE, Wis. (AP) — For a brief moment this week, the bitter contest for swing voters in the swing state of Wisconsin centered on the tarmac of the small Chippewa Valley Regional Airport.
Minutes after Vice President Kamala Harris landed with her novel running mate Tim Walz for their first campaign stop in the state, Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance arrived. He walked across the tarmac to inspect Air Force Two and narrowly missed Harris.
This political encounter might be dismissed as a coincidence if it had taken place anywhere other than Wisconsin, one of the few states that could not only determine the presidential race but also affect the balance of power in Congress, but it was a much clearer signal that both parties understand the importance of a region that could affect the balance of power in more ways than one.
The western Wisconsin congressional district where Harris, Walz and Vance campaigned on Wednesday is one that Democrats are trying to win this year to undermine the narrow Republican majority in the House. It is also crucial to the re-election of U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, a must-win for Democrats if they want to keep the Senate.
The miniature airport in Eau Claire, in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, is far from the Democratic urban strongholds of the east and the deep-red rural areas of northern Wisconsin. But the area is crucial for both Harris and former President Donald Trump because, along with Pennsylvania and neighboring Michigan, it is one of the “blue wall states” that both parties must win to secure the White House.
On Tuesday, the battle lines will become clearer in the hotly contested Democratic primary for the congressional seat currently held by Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, one of Trump’s most vocal supporters.
“The 3rd Congressional District is a purple district in a purple state,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin’s neighboring eastern congressional district. “How they vote there will most likely determine how things turn out for Vice President Harris nationwide.”
Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson called it “a landmark district in a landmark state.”
The diverse district has historically attracted moderates like Democrat Ron Kind, who held the congressional seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022. Before him, moderate Republican Steve Gunderson held the seat for 16 years. Democrat Barack Obama won the district twice in his races for the White House, but Trump won there in both 2016 and 2020 as rural areas across the country became more conservative.
Johnson said Trump’s presence on the ballot helped him win in 2016, aided by the former president’s appeal to working-class voters and farmers. But that doesn’t mean the district is reliably Republican.
“The people of the 3rd District are independent thinkers who don’t like to be pigeonholed,” said Republican Brian Westrate, who grew up and lives in the district. “They don’t like being told who they are or what they believe in. They can’t be taken for granted, no matter what. You have to earn their votes.”
Republicans have done a better job of addressing the issues that matter to them, said Westrate, treasurer of the state Republican Party.
“These are people who like to go out with their firearms during the nine-day hunting season,” he said, “and for them it’s as religious an experience as Christmas.”
With the Mississippi River and the Minnesota border to the west, the district includes the rolling hills of the Driftless Area and Chippewa Falls, home of Leinenkugel beer. From the Illinois border, it stretches 250 miles or 400 kilometers north, past Prairie du Chien, known for its Cabela’s outdoor equipment distribution center and 19th-century riverfront historic sites.
Harris and Walz campaigned on the western edge of the district in Eau Claire, home to a University of Wisconsin campus, about an hour’s drive east of the border with Minnesota, where Walz has been governor since 2019.
Harris hopes her appeal will have an impact beyond state lines, as was the case on Wednesday, when many of the more than 12,000 people her campaign said attended the rally were from Minnesota.
A sturdy electoral result for Harris and Walz in western Wisconsin would reduce the pressure on Democrats in Milwaukee and Madison to counter Republican strongholds in the state’s suburbs and rural areas with clear majorities, says Anthony Chergosky, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.
“They don’t necessarily have to win this congressional district,” Chergosky said of the Democrats. “But they can’t go under.”
Pocan argued that Democrats did not spend enough money to win the open race for the 3rd Congressional District in 2022. This year, as Republican Van Orden seeks re-election, Democrats are making the race a priority. The Democratic House Majority PAC added the race to its list of 31 target seats in July as part of a $24 million ad investment.
Unlike Kind and his moderate Republican predecessor, Van Orden represents the far right wing of the Republican Party. Democrats believe this opens a door for them.
Van Orden attended the rally on Jan. 6, 2021, before a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Since his 2022 election victory, he has been rebuked by leaders of both parties for yelling at Senate pages made up of high school students at the U.S. Capitol, shouting “Lies!” during President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address this year and getting into a scuffle with a liberal activist at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Van Orden’s campaign team did not respond to a request for comment.
The Democratic primary for Congress, to be decided Tuesday, will also test the Democrats’ strength outside their urban centers in Milwaukee and Madison. Each of the three Democratic candidates has taken a different approach, offering a kind of messaging laboratory to figure out how best to appeal to swing voters.
“There’s a very interesting discussion going on in the Democratic Party right now about what will sell in this part of the state,” Chergosky said.
Rebecca Cooke is a former political fundraiser and former miniature business owner who ran and lost in the 2022 Democratic primary. She is running as a political outsider, a position her challengers are challenging because she spent years working as a political activist and fundraiser in Washington. Cooke touts that she grew up on a dairy farm and runs a nonprofit that supports women-owned businesses. She continues to work as a waitress.
Rep. Katrina Shankland, who has served in the legislature since 2013, claims she is the candidate with the most experience in office. She is backed by more than 18 unions and is touting the more than 200 bills she has sponsored that were signed by either the current Democratic governor or his Republican predecessor.
The third candidate, Eric Wilson, is a political newcomer who is trying to position himself as the most liberal candidate by touting his support for Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, a set of environmental protection policy proposals touted by liberals in Congress.
At the end of June, Cooke had more than $1 million in cash on hand, compared to about $342,000 for Shankland and just $42,000 for Wilson. Van Orden had $2.3 million in cash on hand before the general election.
