House Democrats – already energized by the growing number of presidential candidates led by Vice President Kamala Harris – are increasingly optimistic that the rising number of abortion referendums across the country this legislative session will help them win the House and the presidency in November.
The secretaries of state of Arizona and Missouri this week gave the green lightweight to two referendums on abortion rights, bringing the total number of referendums on the issue to eight this cycle, according to the Kaiser Family FoundationThere are several other projects planned across the country.
Women’s reproductive rights played a crucial role in the 2022 midterm elections. Anger over the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate Roe v. Wade drove Democrats to the polls in huge numbers, leading to better-than-expected results for the party. The Democrats’ enthusiasm dampened a widely expected Republican “red wave” and left Republicans with only a slim majority in the House of Representatives.
With less than three months before Election Day, House Democrats are confident that the growing number of pro-abortion initiatives on the ballot – along with Harris’s presidential prospect – will help energize voters and deliver victories for the party in both the front-runner and non-contested races.
“When abortion rights are on the ballot, people defend their rights and Democrats win,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), in an interview with The Hill. “This has been the case throughout the election cycle – in every special election, we have seen higher voter turnout when abortion was on the ballot.”
“We want to pass laws that protect reproductive freedom. That is our highest priority,” she later added. “And we will make that clear to voters across the country, and so will Vice President Harris.”
Democratic Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada, where an abortion bill is on the ballot this cycle, said women’s reproductive rights will become an even more crucial issue this cycle than in the last election because former President Trump is back on the ballot. Republicans across the country have taken aim at abortion rights, and Trump indicated during a press conference last week that he would be open to banning the widely used abortion pill mifepristone. His running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), walked back that stance a few days later.
“I thought maybe this was just an issue from the last election and not as important now, but I think it’s even more important now because you’ve seen the Supreme Court at work, you’ve heard bizarre comments from the vice presidential nominee and Trump continues to brag about the people he appointed to the Supreme Court and overturned Roe v. Wade,” Titus said. “So this is even more acute now than it was then.”
Democrats are leaning toward abortion rights because Harris – the administration’s leading voice on the issue – has brought up-to-date energy to the 2024 election cycle and brought the issue of women’s reproductive rights front and center with a more effective messenger than President Biden, who stepped down from the front-runner nomination last month.
In July, when a six-week abortion ban came into force in Iowa, launched a “week of action in the fight for reproductive freedom”, The speech, which covered events in the swing states, was about “everything that is at stake for reproductive rights in this election.” At a rally this month, Harris said “We don’t joke” to restore abortion rights at the federal level.
The DCCC has also made women’s reproductive rights a central issue in this election campaign. Last month, after Biden dropped out and threw his support behind Harris, the campaign arm referenced Republican efforts to restrict abortion in its memo outlining the Democrats’ path back to the majority. The group had previously issued a memorandum in April Focus on vulnerable Republicans in the states where women’s reproductive rights will be voted on in November.
Since then, the number of states with ballot initiatives on abortion has increased.
Voters in Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, South Dakota, New York, Maryland and Florida will vote in November on measures to protect abortion rights in their states, while several other key states – including Montana and Nebraska – are in the process of seeking approval of their ballot petitions.
The growing number of ballot initiatives is fueling House Democrats’ hopes that voter turnout will enhance this election cycle. The referendums, they say, could further motivate Democrats already excited about Harris’ candidacy and energize voters who aren’t enthusiastic about the slate of candidates but are committed to protecting women’s reproductive rights.
Once these people go to the polls to support abortion rights, House Democrats predict, they will also vote for candidates who support this cause.
“I absolutely believe there are voters who may not be as motivated by a candidate or a slate of candidates to vote at all,” said Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Florida). “But when it comes to government interference in their personal health care decisions, that is a motive that drives some voters to the polls and causes them, once they get to the polls — as we’ve seen in unexpected election victories across the country — to vote not only for reproductive freedom on the issue that’s on the ballot, but for candidates who support that position.”
This increased turnout, if it materializes, could be crucial for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada, two states that will play a major role not only in deciding the winner of the presidential election, but also in determining which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate.
In Arizona, voters will vote on amending the state constitution to guarantee the right to abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, and in Nevada, the question of recognizing a fundamental right to abortion will be raised.
Arizona and Nevada — which have a combined 17 electoral college votes — are both undecided this election cycle, according to the Cook Political Report. But with abortion on the ballot, Democrats from those states say Democrats’ enthusiasm for women’s reproductive rights could tip the scales in Harris’ favor.
“This is a major boost for the vice president, who is very, very successful in Arizona,” said Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton. “I think Vice President Harris will be successful in Arizona.”
Titus also said the abortion issue would help Democrats in voter turnout and in future elections.
“I really think it will make a difference,” she said of the impact of abortion policy on Harris’ White House chances, adding, “I certainly think it helps some Democratic candidates here in Nevada because people don’t mind if a Republican House of Representatives supports a national abortion ban.”
The optimism is not unfounded, however. Abortion initiatives were on the ballot in five states in November 2022 – some supported the procedure, others opposed it – including Michigan, where voters easily passed a proposal to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.
Of the 25 districts with the highest voter turnout this year, six were in Michigan, five of them in the top 10, according to The crystal ball on SaturdayIt was also a significant cycle for the Democrats in the state: for the first time since 1985, the party secured a triple victory.
Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan, a member of the Pro-Choice Caucus, said the initiative has “definitely” increased voter turnout in the Wolverine State this year and predicted the same momentum will develop in states where the issue is on the ballot this cycle.
“I think it turns out that voters are voting on this issue,” Dingell said of the issue of women’s reproductive rights. “I think that’s the issue that drives people to the polls, and then they vote for candidates who advocate keeping the government out of women’s health care decisions.”
Despite the growing hope, some Democrats are urging their party to proceed cautiously as Election Day approaches.
“We are optimistic. We should not be too confident, we know that we have to fight until the last day for the final vote,” said Titus. “But this will certainly be another arrow in our quiver.”
