We have seen a clear shift in the polls from Joe Biden to former President Donald Trump, and this is likely to cause problems for the Democrats behind the scenes.
People in all the groups that Democrats normally think are on their side appear to be turning away from Biden, and even traditionally Democratic states like Virginia and Minnesota are showing shocking poll numbers in Trump’s favor. Even in New York, poll numbers are now in the single digits. As former Republican congressman and New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin explained, it’s pretty amazing how close we’ve come to that point.
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If there was ever a state that was a protected bet to stay in Democratic hands, it’s probably New Jersey.
But now there is a truly shocking poll: According to it, Trump is one percentage point ahead in New Jersey.
📊 NEW JERSEY ENG: @CoefficientSurvey
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK/Third party: 7%
⬜ Undecided: 13%
—
senate
🟦 Kim: 39%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 25%H2H voting –
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 34%
⬜ Undecided: 25%#237 (1.1/3.0) | 26-27 June | 810 LV… pic.twitter.com/X5CNraZXL4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
Trump leads Biden 41 to 40, if you count Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7 percent and the undecided at 13 percent. If there was ever a “wow,” it’s this one. In the 2020 election, Biden was ahead by about 16 percent. If it was that close, it’s unbelievable.
The poll is of likely voters, so that’s good. It was even conducted before the debate, so that has no bearing on it. That could swing the numbers even further in Trump’s favor. According to CNN’s post-debate snap poll, 67 percent believed Trump won, compared to 33 percent for Biden.
I’m from New Jersey but was able to move to Texas, so I’m hesitant to jump on the poll and say New Jersey is in the race. We’ll have to look at more post-debate polling, for example, before I would jump to that conclusion. And there do seem to be a lot of undecideds there, so it’s not clear how they would split. New Jersey hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1988 and George HW Bush. That’s a long time.
This movement is telling, in my opinion, and consistent with what we are seeing in Minnesota and Virginia and even in New York, where Biden is losing ground. In Wildwood, New Jersey, tens of thousands demonstrated for Trump.
I’m cautiously bullish because there’s so much movement in other Democratic states and a lot of people are turning their backs on Biden. If this poll is correct and we get more evidence that Trump is ahead in New Jersey, we could be in for a landslide victory. But the only way to get landslide victories is to get everyone out to vote and make sure you have those votes in the bank.
Don’t make assumptions, make it happen everywhere.
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