An encouraging development for Republicans in general and the Trump/Vance campaign in particular is the fact that mail-in voting data in three states – two of which are crucial swing states – seem to favor the GOP.
Mail-in voting data in three key states show that the Democrats’ lead has fallen sharply in 2020. One expert said this is a good sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
“It’s great news that Republicans are starting to vote early,” Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital.
These comments come as Democrats’ lead in mail-in voting has shrunk significantly in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to data from Decision Desk HQ, suggesting a shift in voting behavior that characterized the last two elections.
Two of the states mentioned are crucial to former President Trump’s electoral victory: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But there is a warning here: The shift is not as bad as it could be, since Republicans have only narrowed, not eliminated, the Democrats’ lead in early voting. But it is encouraging nonetheless.
According to the data, Democrats’ lead in mail-in ballot requests has shrunk by more than 5 percent in Florida, nearly 15 percent in North Carolina and more than 35 percent in Pennsylvania.
Voting early in person or by mail could free up resources for the campaign, Keady said, allowing voters to focus their attention on lower-propensity voters who often play a gigantic role in the election.
“I’m sure voters complain all the time about texting, about mail, about robocalls that they send to vote,” Keady said. “Campaigns have become so sophisticated that as soon as you go to vote, those calls stop… once a voter goes to vote and those calls stop, resources can be diverted from that voter to another voter.”
In these swing states, Florida is a near-certain Republican win, and RealClearPolitics polling shows Kamala Harris currently leading Donald Trump by a razor-thin 0.6 points in Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, however, Trump is ahead by an equally slim 0.6 points. Turnout will be crucial in this election, and Republicans appear to be narrowing that lead through early voting—even if they haven’t yet overtaken it.
It is now widely accepted that Democrats are more likely to favor early voting by mail, while Republicans are more likely to cast their votes the time-honored way on Election Day.
See also: Pennsylvania absentee ballot applications continue to favor Democrats – voter turnout will be crucial
HUGE VICTORY: Georgia Election Board overrides state Attorney General and demands manual ballot count on Election Day
However, there is no good reason why Republican voters and Trump supporters, some of whom are independents, should not operate the system that allows them to “save” their vote. There are indeed risks associated with mail-in voting in particular, and understandably some (including me, to be forthright) do not trust the system. But many of these states allow early in-person voting, and there is little reason not to make sure you cast your ballot as soon as possible. As the article linked above notes, a campaign’s efforts to get voters to the polls can focus on voters with low propensity to vote.
Another clue from this data could be insight into voter enthusiasm. Trump voters may be more motivated to vote and register, and that bodes well for Republican chances in these swing states that are crucial to a Trump victory in the Electoral College.
Voter turnout will be crucial in November. If Republicans can pull this off and narrow the Democrats’ lead, that will be the best thing.
