Just two years ago, anti-abortion leaders were euphoric when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, ending federal abortion rights.
Now, with the presidential election looming, their movement is divided and anxious, with doubts and recriminations within their own ranks and fears that Election Day will provide further evidence that their cause is widely unpopular.
Michael New, an anti-abortion activist who teaches social studies at the Catholic University of America, gave an overview of how the movement has fared since the Roe ruling in June 2022.
“Things have not necessarily turned out the way we hoped,” he wrote in an email to the Associated Press. “There is definitely a feeling among pro-life leaders that we should have had a stronger plan in place after Roe.”
“I always remind my fellow pro-life activists that we were never promised a smooth road to victory,” he added. “There will certainly be setbacks and disappointments along the way.”
A key reason for the skepticism is the recent string of defeats by anti-abortion groups on abortion ballots in seven states, including conservative Kansas and Kentucky. Nine other states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada and South Dakota — will consider constitutional amendments enshrining abortion rights in the Nov. 5 election. In several of them, anti-abortion groups tried a variety of unsuccessful strategies to block the measures.
“Pro-lifers don’t see things in rose-tinted terms; we know we have a huge task ahead of us,” Carol Tobias, president of National Right to Life, told AP. “It’s an uphill battle because of the enormous amounts of money being poured into ballot measures by allies of the abortion industry and the Democratic Party.”
“We will continue to educate and make people aware of the disastrous consequences that would result from passing these measures,” she added. “I have not seen any waning of energy or loss of resolve among pro-lifers.”
Texas is one of the Republican-governed states that has almost completely banned abortion. At the national level, according to John Seago, president of Texas Right to Life, the anti-abortion movement is “at a critical point right now.”
“After a historic legal victory, we recognize that while we have celebrated massive legislative and legal victories over the past decade, public opinion has not followed suit to the same extent,” he added.
Troy Newman, chairman of the anti-abortion group Operation Rescue, recently posted an online commentary attacking the movement he has been part of for 25 years.
“The tide has turned, and the pro-life message is now viewed as a political liability that could prevent President Trump’s victorious return to the White House,” Newman wrote.
“After evaluating the terrible mistakes made by the pro-life movement over the past few years, I can only conclude that it is our fault,” Newman wrote. “We have had over 50 years to change the culture’s attitude toward abortion and we have failed miserably.”
In an interview with AP, Newman blamed his own ranks for the predicament and said some anti-abortion activists should have been more adamant about their positions. “We lose as soon as we stop focusing on the babies,” he said.
Kristan Hawkins, director of Students for Life of America, said by email that Newman’s views are not appropriate for the post-Roe era. She said students in her organization are facing the challenges of competition that varies from state to state.
However, she was aware of the magnitude of the challenges.
“I actually believe the greatest threat is ourselves – our mindsets – which will lead to less recruitment, training and mobilization of our grassroots army of love,” she recently wrote in the conservative media outlet Townhall.
“Look at the difficulties we face this fall with multiple referendums on late-term abortion,” she added. “Most will likely be a political loss for our movement, since there is no politically sophisticated, organized and well-funded statewide movement in most states.”
Hawkins also acknowledged the anger of some anti-abortion activists over the inconsistent rhetoric of the Republican presidential candidates of former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance.
“I am not here to apologize for the campaign and its policy miscalculations that divide us and could very well lead to its defeat,” Hawkins wrote.
Trump nominated the Supreme Court members who were instrumental in overturning Roe and called it “wonderful to watch” different states go in different directions. He has been evasive about whether he would block a federal abortion ban if Congress passed one; his “let’s leave it to the states” approach expresses his acceptance of the current patchwork landscape in which abortion is widely available in at least half of the states.
Trump, who is eligible to vote in Florida, criticized a fresh state law banning abortions after the first six weeks of pregnancy as too restrictive, but he announced he would vote against the bill that would legalize abortions until the fetus is viable.
Trump’s support for a state-level solution was one factor that prompted anti-abortion Catholic academic Charles Camosy to say he now feels politically alienated.
“The Republican Party has rejected our position. The Democrats are fielding a candidate (Kamala Harris) who has made abortion rights a central issue of her campaign,” Camosy, a professor of medical humanities at Creighton University School of Medicine, recently wrote in The Atlantic.
“Pro-lifers – those who believe that protecting vulnerable and unborn life should be a primary political priority – no longer fit into any of the major political parties.”
In an interview, Camosy said abortion rights advocates are better prepared for the post-Roe era than their opponents.
“They had sufficient resources and built important relationships with the media,” said Camosy. In his view, however, some Republican-dominated legislatures went too far with strict abortion bans.
“I see this moment as an opportunity,” Camosy wrote in The Atlantic. “Pro-Life 3.0 must welcome people with diverse political and conceptual perspectives who are committed to both prenatal justice and social support for women and families.”
Some other anti-abortion activists have firmly distanced themselves from Trump, including leaders of End Abortion Ohio.
“We call on all God-fearing American voters to withhold their vote for Trump until he shows genuine remorse for his pro-abortion stance,” said the group’s executive director, Nicholas Kallis.
However, Mike Gonidakis, president of Ohio Right to Life, is promoting support for Trump.
“A large majority of our members nationwide fully support President Trump and believe he would advance protections of life at the federal level … more than a Kamala administration,” he said. “That’s not even close.”
Other leading anti-abortion activists have made similar calculations.
For example, in April, Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said she was “deeply disappointed” by Trump’s willingness to leave abortion policy to the states.
The group is currently planning a $92 million voter outreach program in swing states that will portray Harris and other Democratic candidates as “extremists” on the abortion issue, a move that could potentially benefit Trump.
“It is imperative that the pro-life movement fully unite and mobilize to defeat this threat,” Dannenfelser said.
Among those supporting Trump is Frank Pavone, who continues to lead the Priests for Life organization despite being defrocked in 2022 after a dispute with his bishop over his anti-abortion and partisan activities.
“Trump has won over far more people than he has alienated,” Pavone said by email. “His comments have weakened the effectiveness of Democrats’ dire, panic-mongering warnings that Republicans would ban all abortions.”
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