In 2016, the first warning sign for Hillary Clinton on election night was the fact that it took so long to call Virginia in her favor. Eventually, it did indeed call in her favor, but the time it took the pundits to determine that meant the race was much closer than expected. Ultimately, the night went in Trump’s favor.
Virginia currently has a Republican governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, and a near Republican majority in the legislature. The state is leaning to the right and, while not a swing state in the conventional sense, is nonetheless a state where Republicans have had more success than expected.
Late last month, we noticed a Roanoke College poll showing Biden and Trump tied at 42-42, with the remaining percentage undecided. Notably, however, this happened before Trump was found guilty in the now infamous Manhattan trial.
READ MORE: The poll numbers in Virginia have just worsened for Joe Biden
But now the hypothetical question of whether Trump’s conviction would change anyone’s mind has become a reality. And it seems that just as many people are more motivated to vote for Trump than against him.
The latest poll in non-swing state Virginia shows a 48-48 tie between Trump and Biden, and Fox News conducted the poll after the conviction. It should also be noted that Trump tends to do worse in Fox News polls than one would expect from a center-right network — and worse than several other mainstream polls. Still, when Trump is tied with Biden in a Fox poll, things look very bad indeed.
The poll released on Thursday shows that Biden and Trump each received 48% of the vote in the Old Dominion State.
Biden receives powerful support among black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%).
Biden is leading among black voters, but not nearly as high as in 2020 – according to Fox News Voter Analysis. In 2020, Biden won among black voters by 81 percentage points, compared to 48 percentage points in the novel poll. Trump has nearly tripled his share among black voters: from 9 percent in 2020 to 25 percent today.
Trump’s support comes from white evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%) and white voters (54%).
This demographic breakdown is brutal. He has lost eight percent of black voters and is only at 56 percent among educated voters. In normal times, both figures should be higher for the Democratic candidate. And the fact that these black voters are voting for Trump rather than simply staying home is a nightmare scenario for Biden.
If you’re a Democrat (and I know you’re reading this because you’re keeping an eye on the enemy), there are many reasons to look at this and be concerned. As I said, Trump is underperforming in most polls, but especially in Fox News polls. He was just found guilty on 34 counts in a “hush money” case. He lost to Biden four years ago. There are many reasons why you might expect voters not They’re on Trump’s side, and yet they’re doing it. That should scare Democrats (and if the behind-the-scenes whispers are true, it is).
Of course, this just means that Trump and Biden are tied in Virginia. Nowand it’s also likely that Biden will win that state in the end anyway. But if Biden does that poorly there, he’s going to do poorly everywhere, and that should be a red alert for Democrats.
