President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris with 48 percent over her 47 percent in one national survey conducted Oct. 31 by Kaplan Strategies with 671 registered voters.
“Since Harris was named by President Joe Biden as his successor as the party’s nominee, the race has been within the margin of error for the past 100 days or so,” said Doug Kaplan, the founder and president of the Kissimmee, Florida-based political consulting firm. The survey has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
“It may not seem like a point is a big deal, but in the context of the national or popular vote it means more because California and New York make up 15 percent of the population, where Democrats are collecting votes they don’t need. “he said.
“In 2020, Biden received eight million additional votes in the two states that had nothing to do with the Electoral College – by state – so even if Trump were behind by three points, it would really be a tie,” he said.
Kaplan said one of the tricky things about polls is the impact of early voting.
“47 percent of respondents have already voted,” he said. “41 percent said they were very likely to vote.”
Kaplan: Gender participation determines who wins the White House
“The history of this election will be remembered as voter turnout, but turnout by gender, because the two candidates have two gender differences,” Kaplan said.
“We started with 50,000 responses and pared that down to align with our proprietary voter turnout model,” Kaplan said. “We expect turnout to be 52 percent women and 48 percent men – any movement of these gender numbers north or south is equivalent to the race as a whole.”
The pollster said Harris’ lead was due to her advantage over women and their tendency to outvote men.
“Harris has the support of 55 percent of female voters but only 41 percent of male voters,” he said.
“Trump has the support of 56 percent of male voters but only 39 percent of female voters,” the pollster said.
“It goes both ways for both candidates, so we’ll have to wait and see the results of the exit polls to see how it really turns out, but from what I’ve read, gender turnout is the deciding game.” he said.
“The gender gap is also evident in the battle for the House of Representatives with the same gender gap,” he said.
According to Pew ResearchIn the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 44 percent of women, compared to 39 percent in 2016.
“51 percent of female voters told Kaplan they would support the Democratic House candidates and 41 percent of female voters said they would support the Republican House candidates,” Kaplan said.
“Among male voters, 51 percent support Republican House candidates, 37 percent support Democratic House candidates,” he said.
Republicans control the House for this session, which ends in January, with 220 seats, while Democrats have 212 seats with three vacancies.
Latest Kaplan Strategies 2024 Presidential Poll from Neil on Scribd
Kaplan: Trump leads with Catholics; Harris leads with atheists and agnostics
“Even when Harris was in her hot streak where nothing was going wrong, she couldn’t break out and build a lead over Trump,” Kaplan said.
“Trump’s support has been as resilient as any politician in American history, but unlike other popular politicians, Trump has incredible disadvantages – but so do they,” he said.
“Fifty percent of respondents have a ‘very negative’ opinion of the president and 36 percent of respondents have a ‘very positive’ opinion of him,” he said.
“Harris has a similar gap,” Kaplan said. “46 percent have a ‘very negative’ opinion of the vice president and 32 percent have a ‘very positive’ opinion of her.”
Among religious groups, Trump’s strongest support is among Catholics at 59 percent and among fundamentalist Christians at 57 percent, but his weakest support is among those with no religious affiliation (31 percent) and among Jewish Americans (37 percent).
Harris’ strongest religious support is 67 percent among voters with no religious affiliation and 63 percent among Jewish Americans.
Kaplan: The poll of likely voters misses Trump supporters
Kaplan said he compiled his final 2024 poll results using registered voters rather than likely voters, which was always considered the preferred method, especially as an election approached.
He said the emphasis on likely voters, voters who have regularly voted in primaries and general elections in the past, ignores immense numbers of Trump supporters.
“When I worked with Pat Caddell on the 2016 election, he insisted that I disclose my results to all registered voters because so many of Trump’s voters are disconnected and voting for Trump may be the only time they even vote “,” he said.
“Trump’s lead is within the margin of error; The five percent of undecided people should go for Trump because he has established himself as a challenger,” said Kaplan.
“It was a struggle for each campaign to present themselves as both incumbent and challenger as they saw fit, but in the end Harris flies Air Force 2,” he said.
“She claims to be involved in all of Biden’s decisions, so in the end she is not the challenger.”
