CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Kamala Harris’s bid to win in North Carolina has an unexpected star: Mark Robinson.
Robinson, the state’s controversial Republican gubernatorial candidate, can be seen speaking to Harris volunteers and voters on the phone and at their doorsteps this week. Democrats are waving signs warning against Trump-Robinson extremism at their press conferences. Billboard trucks are driving around key cities warning that Robinson, who is also the state’s lieutenant governor, is “crazy.” And Harris is running a novel television ad campaign highlighting Donald Trump’s history of heaping flowery praise on Robinson.
No Democrat has won since former President Barack Obama in 2008, whose victory is the only Democratic presidential victory in the Southern state in half a century. But Trump held North Carolina by just 1.3 percentage points four years ago, and in the final weeks before Election Day, the state is once again one of the most competitive.
Democrats are betting that Robinson’s extraordinary baggage can give Harris the edge she needs to make history.
Both sides acknowledge that a Harris victory in North Carolina would dramatically complicate Trump’s path to the presidency. The Republican presidential candidate acknowledged during a campaign appearance on Wednesday that much is at stake.
“We’ve won North Carolina twice and we’ve got to win it again,” Trump told a cheering crowd at a factory near Charlotte. “If we win North Carolina, we’ll go all the way.”
Trump no longer mentions Robinson
But Trump made no mention of Robinson at the event as he introduced several VIPs. It was the second snub of his hand-picked gubernatorial candidate within five days within one state.
The Democrats are not making it effortless for Trump to distance himself from the man he himself supported, to whom he gave a speaking slot at the Republican Party Convention and whom he described as “one of the great leaders of our country” and “better than Martin Luther King.”
Virtually every message Harris’ campaign sent to North Carolina voters this week featured Robinson, who was abandoned by many Republican officials — and his own staff — after a CNN report on explicitly racist and sexual posts on a porn website. The Republican Governors Association stopped running ads in his name this week, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who sits on the RGA’s executive committee, told National Review on Wednesday that he would no longer support Robinson.
Yet Trump has so far refused to withdraw his support, even though Robinson, who has been a regular at Trump’s recent appearances in North Carolina, has become the name-barred man at recent events.
North Carolina-born Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley passed over Robinson as he reviewed a list of the state’s top elected officials at a campaign event in Charlotte earlier this week.
The insult did not go unnoticed. Two audience members shouted Robinson’s name during Whatley’s speech. The Republican chairman did not even bat an eyelid.
Both Trump and his running mate JD Vance ignored Robinson during their four appearances in North Carolina since Saturday, with Vance forced to mention his party’s gubernatorial candidate only when answering questions from reporters.
“What he said or didn’t say is ultimately between him and the people of North Carolina,” Vance said of Robinson. “I’ve seen some of the statements, but not all of them. Some of them are pretty disgusting, to say the least.”
Republicans are concerned about the consequences of the scandal
Dallas Woodhouse, a veteran North Carolina Republican, said Robinson’s potential influence on the election was “worrying” but predicted he would have an even more grave chilling effect on candidates on the next ballots for Congress and the state House of Representatives, where Republicans are battling to preserve their two-thirds majorities in both chambers.
Meanwhile, some Democrats close to the Harris campaign fear that the Robinson scandal may not be enough to swing North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes to the Democratic candidate in the governor’s race. The state has been in the party’s sights since Obama’s victory in 2008, but even Obama could not repeat his success in 2012.
There is a feeling among at least some Harris insiders that Georgia may offer better chances for Harris in the South.
Still, Democrats point to North Carolina’s enormous suburban, college-educated population – a demographic that is turning away from Trump – as well as its growing Hispanic population and sturdy base of African-Americans, who continue to form the core of the Democratic coalition.
Harris’ team is hoping that the lingering fallout from Robinson, and their intense focus on it in the election’s final weeks, will give them a diminutive advantage – if only by convincing some potential Trump voters not to vote at all. They also hope to poach some of the 250,000 voters who supported Trump’s Republican rival Nikki Haley in the March primary.
“What’s new is that Robinson is getting more attention now,” said Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s swing state director. “There’s a greater public recognition that he’s so far outside the mainstream, like Donald Trump, that voters now have an opportunity to connect those dots in a way that could hold up at a time when voters are starting to pay attention and make decisions.”
He described North Carolina as “absolutely neck and neck.”
Robinson’s problems do not dampen Republican enthusiasm for Trump
Concern about Robinson was palpable at one of Vance’s appearances at Freedom House Church in Charlotte this week, but no one said the gubernatorial candidate’s issues would stop them from voting for Trump.
“I can’t say I’m confident. It’s close,” Greg Mills, a Republican candidate for school board in Cabarrus County, said of the presidential race.
Mills, himself a candidate for local office, said he was still “inclined to support Robinson” because the gubernatorial candidate has denied the allegations. “If it’s true, it’s deeply disturbing,” he said.
However, Mills said he had “no reservations” about supporting Trump.
Sitting not far away in the packed church is Kathy Goodman, 74, of Harrisburg. She says she isn’t sure if she will vote for Robinson this fall. But she insists Trump is “too good” to let Robinson weigh him down.
“He should not be held accountable for what Mark Robinson did,” Goodman said. “They are two different people.”
Beyond Robinson, Democrats also have a sturdy grassroots effort: They maintain 27 campaign offices across the state, employing more than 250 paid field staff and more than 26,000 volunteers – the huge majority of whom joined the campaign after Harris stepped in for President Joe Biden.
The Trump team left most of its on-the-ground voter outreach to outside groups and devoted much of its resources to monitoring “voter integrity” once the election begins.
At a volunteer center in Raleigh, 43-year-old Democratic volunteer Nancy Watson spent her lunch break earlier this week calling potential Harris supporters. She said she also spends nearly every weekend canvassing for the campaign.
Watson hopes the Robinson scandal will ultimately support Harris, but looking back on her recent conversations with voters, she says some people still aren’t paying close attention.
“You never know what motivates potential voters,” she said.
Vernon Daughtry, a 66-year-old volunteer who retired from teaching and nursing, was on the phone nearby.
“I’m glad he’s still in the race. I hope he takes down Trump,” Daughtry said of Robinson. “It’s time for North Carolina to elect a Democratic president. It’s possible.”
