The race for the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia is getting more electrifying as Vice President Harris closes the gap that former President Trump had built up with President Biden when he was the likely Democratic nominee.
According to an Emerson College/The Hill poll, Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump in Nevada and Georgia. Opinion poll was released on Thursday, while Trump is slightly ahead in the same poll in Arizona.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult, Harris was ahead of Trump by an average of two percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Opinion poll published, while Fox News Surveys on Wednesday show that Harris leads in Arizona by 1 point, in Georgia by 2 points and in Nevada by 2 points.
Biden won all three states in 2020 after Trump won Georgia and Arizona in 2016. North Carolina, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, is also in play, according to the Cook Political Report explained the state is a “gamble” this week.
A Harris victory in any of these states would be a major blow to Trump. And a clear victory would make his re-election unlikely unless there are major surprises in other electoral college states.
“Her candidacy has been instrumental in opening up several paths in the electoral college. This path now leads through states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, as well as through the blue wall states,” said Clayton Cox, former finance director of the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
Harris’ newfound momentum in the Sun Belt has brought the states into play. Biden trailed Trump, especially in the final stages of his re-election campaign.
In the days before Biden’s withdrawal, Trump had a lead of 4 percentage points over Biden in Georgiaa lead of 5.8 percentage points over Biden in Nevadaa lead of 5.7 percentage points over Biden in Arizonaand a lead of 4.9 percentage points in North Carolinaaccording to DDHQ/The Hill poll aggregation.
Harris has now closed that gap, but her lead is only razor-thin.
The current polls show Harris with a lead of 0.1 percentage points in Georgiaa lead of 0.7 percentage points in Nevadaand a lead of 0.1 percentage points in ArizonaTrump and Harris are currently neck and neck in North Carolina.
At the national level, Harris is 3.8 percentage points ahead of Trump, according to DDHQ/The Hill Aggregation of surveys As of the end of August. This is a reversal from the 3.3 percentage point lead Trump had over Biden shortly before the president withdrew his candidacy, according to the aggregation at that time.
Biden succumbed to pressure from his Democratic colleagues, especially members of Congress, and dropped out of his candidacy. In July, internal election maps showed that not only did Biden have little chance of defeating Trump, but that the party would also struggle in the House and Senate elections.
With Harris’s performance, Democrats have renewed hope that they have a chance to win in 2024, reflected in part by the enthusiasm that is following her across the country. Democrats attribute part of their success to a messaging strategy that appears to be resonating.
“Kamala Harris has an inclusive, forward-thinking message coupled with an authentic way of delivering her message, and as a result has begun to build a coalition that opens up multiple paths to reaching 270, whereas Trump’s regressive, divisive message has seemingly limited his options,” said Adam Abrams, communications director for former President Obama’s 2008 campaign and partner at Seven Letter.
Fox News polls showing Harris one point ahead of Trump in Arizona translate to a 6-point lead over Biden, who was 5 points behind Trump in that state. in a survey from June 2024.
Harris’ two-point lead over Trump in Georgia and Nevada is an escalate of 8 and 7 points, respectively, over Biden’s poll results in those states in June. This poll annoyed the Trump campaignwho called it a “horrific poll.”
While Trump is one point ahead of Harris in North Carolina, Harris managed to narrow the gap there as well. Trump was 4 points ahead of Biden in the Tarheel state.
Harris’ campaign trips reflect a deliberate effort to target locations such as Savannah, Phoenix and Las Vegas to boost her campaign coffers with recent rallies and fundraisers.
Governor Tim Walz (D-Minnesota) fundraised in North Carolina this week, and Harris and Walz launched a bus tour of southern Georgia that culminated in their first joint prime-time interview since they rose to the top of the Democratic ticket.
Harris has made an effort to appeal to voters in swing states who may be independent, undecided or moderate Republicans. The CNN interview highlighted that her stance on fracking and the border has changed compared to when she ran in the 2020 primaries.
In an August memo, the Harris campaign emphasized that there are multiple paths to 270 states, but it has significantly increased its investment in the Sun Belt states. Compared to Biden’s 2020 candidacy, the Harris campaign is investing four times as much in television advertising in Georgia and nearly six times as much in Nevada.
Harris closing the polls in these key Sun Belt states is reminiscent of former President Obama’s coalition that twice put him in the White House and included newborn, college-educated voters, Cox argued. Obama never won Arizona or Georgia, but he did win Nevada in 2008 and 2012 and North Carolina in 2008.
“Every presidential campaign has its own path and its own coalitions that will lead it to victory. The Harris-Walz campaign appears to be building a coalition similar to the one that gave Barack Obama two terms,” he said. “This coalition is younger, more diverse and relies more on college-educated voters who happen to be more reflective of the Sun Belt.”
Updated at 7:30 a.m. EDT
