WASHINGTON (AP) — Election Day is just around the corner. In a few hours the final votes for the 2024 presidential election will be cast.
In a deeply divided nation, the election is a real contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.
We know there are seven battleground states that will decide the outcome, barring a major upset. But massive questions remain about the timing of results, the makeup of the electorate, the influx of misinformation — even the possibility of political violence. At the same time, both sides are prepared for a protracted legal battle that could complicate matters even further.
Here’s what you can watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:
Either way, history will be written
Given all the twists and turns of the last few months, it’s uncomplicated to overlook the historic significance of this election.
Harris would become the first female president in the 248-year history of the United States. She would also be the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold the position. Harris and her campaign have largely downplayed gender and race for fear of alienating some supporters. But the significance of a Harris victory would not be lost on historians.
A Trump victory would be a historic achievement of a different kind. He would be the first person convicted of a crime to be elected to the office of US president, after being convicted of 34 counts of hush money in New York just over five months ago had been convicted.
Trump, who still faces felony charges in at least two separate criminal cases, argued that he was the victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of millions of voters apparently believe him – or are prepared to overlook his extraordinary legal baggage.
How long will it take until the winner is announced?
Election Day in the United States is now often considered election week, as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention legal challenges — that can delay results. But the truth is that no one knows how long it will take for the winner to be announced this time.
In 2020, the Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — four days after the polls closed. But even then, the AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after votes were counted by hand.
Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polling stations closed. The AP declared Trump the winner at 2:29 a.m. on election night (technically, it was Wednesday morning on the East Coast).
This time, both campaigns expect the race to be extremely close, barring a major surprise, in the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Due to the size of the map and the closeness of the race, it is tough to predict when a winner might be determined.
Where can I find initial indications of how the competition might develop?
Look at two battleground states on the East Coast, North Carolina and Georgia, where results could come relatively quickly. That doesn’t mean we’ll get final results quickly in these states if returns are close, but they are the early swing states that could give a glimpse of what kind of evening we’re in for.
To go deeper, look at the urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast where Democrats have made gains since 2020.
In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home to the state capital Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will show how much Trump will need to break out of the less populated rural areas he dominates has to squeeze out.
In Pennsylvania, Harris needs high turnout in deep-blue Philadelphia, but she also wants to expand Democrats’ lead in suburban districts to the north and west of the city. She campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden surpassed Clinton’s 2016 margin of victory. The Philadelphia metropolitan area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.
Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump must snail-paced Democratic growth in Michigan’s key suburban counties outside Detroit, particularly Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Waukesha County, Wisconsin, outside of Milwaukee.
Where are the candidates?
Trump is likely to spend the early hours of Election Day in Michigan, where, as is his tradition, he will hold a final night rally in Grand Rapids.
The Republican candidate plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida, where he is expected to vote in person – although he previously said he would vote early. He is scheduled to host a campaign party in Palm Beach on Tuesday evening.
Harris plans to attend an election night party at Howard University in Washington, a historically black university where she graduated in 1986 with degrees in economics and political science and was an energetic member of the Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.
Aside from Howard, she has not announced a public schedule for Election Day.
Harris said Sunday that she “just filled out her mail-in ballot” and that it was “on its way to California.”
Who is left to show up on election day?
On the eve of Election Day, it is unclear which voters will show up to vote on Tuesday.
More than 77 million people participated in early voting, either in person or by mail. So many people have already cast their ballots that some officials say polling places in states like Georgia could be a “ghost town” on Election Day.
A key reason for the escalate is that Trump has generally encouraged his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he urged Republicans to vote only in person on Election Day. The early voting numbers confirm that millions of Republicans have heeded Trump’s call in recent weeks.
The key question, however, is whether the surge of Republicans voting earlier this time will ultimately cannibalize the number of Republicans who show up on Tuesday.
There are also shifts on the democratic side. Four years ago, when the pandemic was still ongoing, Democrats overwhelmingly cast their vote early. But this time, without the risk to public health, it’s likely more Democrats will show up in person on Election Day.
This balance on both sides is crucial when we try to understand early returns. And it is up to the election campaigns to know which voters they still have to vote on Tuesday. On this front, Democrats may have an advantage.
Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee have outsourced much of their campaign operations to outside groups, including a group largely funded by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that is facing recent questions about their practices. By contrast, Harris’ campaign runs a more customary operation that includes more than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices in battleground states alone.
Could there be unrest?
Trump has aggressively spread baseless claims in recent days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists he can only lose if Democrats cheat, even though polls show the race is a real slouch.
Trump could win again on election night regardless of the result, just as he did in 2020.
Such rhetoric can have grave consequences, as the nation saw when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, on one of the darkest days in state-of-the-art American history. And unfortunately, there is still a risk of further violence this election season.
The Republican National Committee will deploy thousands of election integrity observers on Tuesday to look for signs of fraud that critics fear could lead to harassment of voters or poll workers. At some key polling locations, officials have required the presence of sheriff’s deputies in addition to bulletproof glass and panic buttons that connect election officials with a local emergency dispatcher.
At the same time, Trump’s allies point out that he has faced two assassination attempts in recent months, raising the possibility of further threats against him. And police in Washington and other cities are preparing for the possibility of grave unrest on Election Day.
As always, it is worth noting that a broad coalition of senior government and industry officials, including many Republicans, concluded that the 2020 election was the “safest” in American history.”
___ AP writers Tom Beaumont and Will Weissert in Washington and Jill Colvin in Grand Rapids, Michigan, contributed.
